Minute by Minute

The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything … continue reading →

PCE in Line, Spending Misses

May PCE and core PCE were in line with expectations at 0.1% and 0.3% MoM respectively.  YoY core came in at 4.6%, slightly below expectations of 4.7%. The most notable surprise was MoM personal spending which tumbled from 0.6% to 0.1%. Futures, already up moderately following VIX’s overnight drop, ramped even higher. continued for members… … continue reading →

Powell: Inflation Not Over

“Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go,” Powell asserted in prepared remarks in advance of his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Our charts certainly agree. As posted last week, there is little chance of inflation not bouncing back … continue reading →

No Surprise

“I can’t believe stocks rallied so strongly into options expiration!” said no one. Between VIX’s plunge, the euro’s ramp, and the yield curve’s decimation, bears have had no chance – even as fundamentals argued otherwise. continued for members… … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Jun 14, 2023

According to futures and talking heads, there’s a 94% chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes this afternoon – though perhaps with a hawkish tilt. By our reckoning, equities have piled on at least 6% in the past few weeks in anticipation of this outcome.Is it justified? continued for members… … continue reading →