Futures are essentially flat this morning after Friday’s OPEX panic to regain the 200-day moving average.
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Tag: oil
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Charts I’m Watching: Jan 20, 2023
Futures are marginally higher ahead of 2023’s first options expiration.
Note that the 2022 Review and 2023 Forecasts are both completed.continued for members… (more…)
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Reshuffling
Futures are up over 0.65% even as VIX has popped 6.25% in the after hours.
What gives?There’s actually a lot of reshuffling going on this morning, with important implications for currencies and equities.
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Taking a Knee
Futures are up moderately as we approach the open, gaining back much of the losses suffered yesterday in the wake of a dismal pending home sales print (-4.0% versus -0.8% expected, the worst since inception in 2001.) Prices fell MoM for the fourth month in a row.
At this point, it appears the bulls are ready to take a knee and let the clock run out on 2022. Unfortunately, 2023 should prove even more difficult.continued for members… (more…)
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Good Enough
It seems the algos are content to hold the current line instead of rallying into the end of the year – this Friday.
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Charts I’m Watching: Dec 27, 2022
S&P futures are quiet this morning, back to even after being up about 30 points overnight.
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Give and Take
What the algos giveth, David Tepper (bearish) and Q3 GDP (+3.2% vs 2.9% est. and -0.6% last) taketh away. Futures are off sharply as we approach the open.
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Bulls: Throwing in the Towel?
As expected, Powell and Co. were not amused by the market’s recent exuberance and decided to take things down a notch.
The algos haven’t yet given up, though, with VIX still under pressure and DXY remaining oversold.
The reversal is working just fine so far. But, with OPEX tomorrow and two weeks left in the year, we’re left to wonder whether the bulls are ready to throw in the towel.continued for members… (more…)
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FOMC Day: Dec 14, 2022
They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one.
Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat.
After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the hoopla complicated the Fed’s task by aptly demonstrating the persistent froth in the markets.I believe this practically guarantees that Powell will pull another Jackson Hole and scold investors for their irrational exuberance. Whether it will be enough to counteract the OPEX effect is anyone’s guess.
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Crisis Averted
Based on how the market is reacting, inflation is no longer a concern. The Fed will pivot and easy money will be back in no time. Except, as we’ve been discussing, this is one of those weeks which almost always overreacts to the upside: FOMC meeting, OPEX, end of year, etc.
As noted yesterday, the dreaded bearish signals such as a simple 10/20 cross have been averted – at least for now – and the algos are throwing a party.
Yesterday’s gap higher in VIX (in conjunction with a 1.4% rally in stocks) was indeed a massive head fake in light of this morning’s 13% smackdown. Talk about closing a gap…
From where I sit, however, the Fed’s job just got tougher. While monthly CPI came in slightly lighter than expected, we still have problematic wage and rent inflation, and financial conditions are getting looser, not tighter.
Remember Jackson Hole? Maybe it’s VIX’s 13% plunge which is the headfake…continued for members… (more…)
