The ECB Chooses Stagflation

Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity. continued for members… … continue reading →

Backtest Complete

Breakouts from well-established falling channels are usually followed by backtests of that channel. This is how bulls put all that nasty bearishness behind them, freeing stocks for another leg up. Except, it doesn’t always turn out that way.  Sure, ES nailed our backtest target. But will it follow through with a respectable bounce? continued for … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Sep 1, 2022

Futures are off about 0.5% this morning as the economic data was somewhat better than expected. It’s an important juncture for the market, as USDJPY has reached our 139.43 target at the same time that ES is approaching our 3902 backtest target. continued for members… … continue reading →

More Where That Came From

Yesterday marked the second day in a row of sharp declines in the equity markets following the 200-day moving average backtest and the passing of OPEX.There’s more where that came from. continued for members… … continue reading →

Maintaining an Even Strain

Looking at the bounce since Jun 16, I can’t help but think of Chuck Yeager’s ill-fated journey into space. Futures are up very slightly this morning, fixated on maintaining prices through tomorrow’s massive option expiration.VIX: an excellent example of maintaining an even strain.continued for members… … continue reading →

Retail Sales (Sort of) Flat

July retail sales came in at 0.0%, a goose egg, versus expectations that were generally around 0.1-0.2%. These data aren’t adjusted for inflation, however, so the “real” change was another drop. Markets seem to care at the moment, with ES off nearly 1%.  But, our charts had already called for a reversal yesterday after reaching … continue reading →

Housing Continues to Disappoint

Housing starts missed again this morning, underscoring the NAHB’s assessment that the housing industry is in a recession. Starts came in 100K below consensus and 9.5% below June’s report. Futures, still laser focused on OPEX, didn’t budge. The NAHB posted the 8th monthly decline in a row yesterday, reporting the lowest reading since May 2020.  … continue reading →

Empire Fed: 2nd Biggest Plunge Ever

On the heels of a slowdown in China which was serious enough to cut interest rates, the Empire Fed numbers which came out this morning represent the second largest decline ever.  It was expected to slip from 11.1 to 5.0. Instead, it plunged to -31.3, among the worst readings on record. Aside from the COVID … continue reading →