pebblewriter

Tag: gold

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 29, 2024

    Futures are flat as we enter a data-laden week accented by Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision.continued for members… (more…)

  • Q4 GDP Beats

    Q4 advanced GDP came in at 3.3% annualized versus 2.0% estimates and full year 2023’s 2.5%. The PCE price index and durable goods orders came in as expected, though durable goods ex-transportation came in sharply higher than estimates.  The numbers…

    Futures had already bounced at the rising white channel midline, but extended their gains after the data dump. The more important chart to watch, however, remains SPX itself.

    New home sales are due out at 10 ET.

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  • Update on Gold and Silver: Jan 24, 2024

    In last month’s update on gold and silver [see: Dec 5 Update] we noted that gold and silver had reached our mid-October targets. We forecast that silver would likely drop to its 200-day moving average and continue dropping to backtest two significant trend lines at 22.

    It reached 22.04 on Monday before and has bounced 2.5% this morning.

    Likewise, gold reversed sharply off our 2152 target from October and dropped 160, but hasn’t quite reached our next lower target. It is an interesting development, and one which makes a statement about the USD and, possibly, inflation.

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  • PCE Gives Fed Room to Cut

    PCE came in below expectations. Headline was -0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY. Core was +0.1% and 3.2% YoY.  This was the smallest rise since April 21, and offers the Fed additional room to consider cuts in 2024 should the trend continue.Futures added to modest gains after the print.  The key issue remains: whether the moderating inflation trend can continue unabated.

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  • VIX: “Don’t Worry About It”

    Despite a much hotter than expected NFP print, VIX’s convenient collapse… …has once again convinced investors algos that there’s nothing to worry about. The 20-pt drop in futures following the print was erased within minutes.

    It’s all in keeping with our year-end forecast, which remains unchanged.

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  • Christmas Comes Early

    Futures continue to be supported above their 10-day moving average by a combination of algo factors led by VIX. The Christmas meltup came early this year and, so far, shows no signs of letting up.continued for members… (more…)

  • Update on Gold & Silver: Dec 5, 2023

    As noted yesterday, gold and silver reached our target ranges from mid-October.  GC came up slightly short of its target from Oct 18 [see: Mideast Worries Mount]…

    …before being aggressively hammered.

    Silver nailed its target very precisely before meeting a similar fate. We’re faced with the usual questions after targets are reached: Was that it? Is it over? What’s next?

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 4, 2023

    Futures are off sharply this morning, suggesting a break in the upside momentum.

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  • All Eyes on CPI

    This is one of the biggest weeks for economic data in quite some time. We get October CPI tomorrow, PPI and retail sales on Wednesday, initial claims on Thursday, and housing starts and permits on Friday.  Of all these data, CPI looms largest for the markets.

    Recall that September core CPI came in at 4.1% YoY, with shelter (+7.2% YoY) accounting for over 70% of the increase. With the recent sharp drop in mortgage rates, shelter could remain stubbornly high, complicating the Fed’s inflation fighting efforts and thus paring the market’s optimism.

    Futures are off moderately in advance of tomorrow’s data after nailing our channel top target.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 23, 2023

    Futures have dropped through our 200-day moving average target – a significant move that opens the door to a more important backtest.

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