pebblewriter

Tag: gold

  • Premature Escalation

    As we suspected, Wednesday’s lows weren’t enough to generate a sustainable bounce. We’re seeing the aftermath of that premature technical bounce this morning. Our long held bearish position on EURUSD, for instance, is finally gathering a little momentum.The challenge for bears remains SPX’s 50-day moving average, currently at 5105. If VIX can remain below 18.50, then we could see more meaningful support for equities. If VIX surges past that long term trend line, then the bears could finally have something to celebrate.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 8, 2024

    Futures are up modestly as traders look ahead to this week’s important data dumps: FOMC minutes and CPI on Wednesday, initial claims and PPI on Thursday, and Friday’s U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

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  • Another Blowout Jobs Report

    NFP came in at 303K vs 200K estimates, a huge beat which, combined with a decline in the unemployment rate, argues against any near term rate cuts.

    ES is all over the map this morning, but has given up much of its overnight ramp and is approaching our next downside target. With CPI coming out next week and a likely military escalation in the Middle East, ES will do well to hold its 50-day moving average.

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  • Update on Currencies: Apr 2, 2024

    We’ve seen this movie before. For years, the yen carry trade has been a critical element of the equity price support toolbox. But, all good things must come to an end. When the yen gets too cheap, Japanese inflation becomes problematic as the cost of importing food and energy soars.

    Aside from exposing the ludicrousness of its monetary policy, Japan’s recently unveiled 0.0-0.1% interest rate regime speaks volumes to the pressures of trying to balance economic reality with the desire for ever higher stock prices.

    Slamming the yen’s value works fine – to a point. But, as rising food and energy costs pressure the real economy, something has to give.

    Enter the euro.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 15, 2024

    Futures are flat this OPEX morning as algos weigh the impact of higher than expected inflation, driven largely by rising oil and gas prices.continued for members… (more…)

  • PPI Comes in Hot, Too

    February PPI came in at twice expectations: 0.6% versus 0.3%.  In a replay of the CPI print, stocks dipped for a few seconds before resuming their overnight ramp as algos were more focused on VIX dropping through its 50-DMA just in time for OPEX.

    VIX did pop above the 50-DMA…for several seconds. It got better.Indicators such as RSI still remain on edge.continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 8, 2024

    Blink, and you might have missed the selloff this morning when nonfarm payrolls came in much higher than expected but the January print was revised sharply lower.Fortunately, the algos were on it, immediately crashing VIX to a point where a 15-pt decline in ES turned into a 15-pt gain.

    This should put SPX at its 1.272 Fib extension, a potentially important level of overhead resistance ahead of next week’s CPI and PPI prints.

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  • PCE in Line

    January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December.

    In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at a 0.2% rate versus 0.7% in December.

    Algos cheered the data, with futures swinging from a moderate loss to a moderate gain in seconds.

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  • Hot CPI Dashes Rate Cut Hopes

    January CPI came in hotter than expected, taking a March rate cut off the table and casting serious doubts on a May rate cut.

    Futures are off sharply, shedding over 1% to reach the bottom of the rising green channel from Oct 2023.

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  • NFP Soars

    Nonfarm payrolls soared by 353,000, more than twice the 175,000 expected. Average hourly wages also beat at +0.6% (+4.5% YoY) versus +0.3% expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Forget about a March rate cut. Bulls will be lucky to get one in May.

    The overnight ramp job has completely disappeared, with futures struggling to remain positive.  AAPL‘s meltdown hasn’t helped.

    Factory orders and Michigan consumer sentiment are due out at 10ET.

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