No Pressure

Futures are off about 2% following yesterday’s FOMC announcement and press conference – the closest we’ll probably ever get to a mea culpa – which was accompanied by the usual algo nonsense. Suffice it to say, traders have come to their senses and markets are once again reflecting the likelihood of the Fed tightening into … continue reading →

PPI Still Running Plenty Hot

PPI dropped just a bit from last month, registering 10.8% YoY (unadjusted) for May versus 10.9% for April and 11.5% for March.  The MoM tally was +0.8% for May versus 0.4% for April. The very slight drop in the YoY data is unlikely to assuage the Fed’s fears about inflation being out of control. But, … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 13, 2022

ES dropped over 100 points overnight to tag our 3802 target. The other perhaps more significant target to be tagged is the 10Y. It topped our 3.248 target and is currently trading at 3.28.Our analog continues to perform beautifully. continued for members… … continue reading →

Inflation Reaches a New 40-Year High

CPI soared to a new 40-year high: 8.6% YoY and 1.0% MoM. Core also exceeded consensus, coming in at 6.0%. Futures are not amused, as this takes anything less than a 50 bps rate hike next week off the table. A 75 bps hike is suddenly a real possibility. Needless to say, our analog remains … continue reading →

The ECB’s Fantasy World

You can’t make this stuff up. With May inflation at 8.1% across the euro zone, the Governing Council is leaving rates unchanged with an increase of 25 bps to be unleashed in July to “ensure that inflation stabilizes toward its 2% target over the medium term.” Sigh… Futures continue forming their triangle with a denouement … continue reading →

It’s Currencies’ Turn

USDJPY finally tagged our 132.22 target overnight… …a target we set over six months ago [see: Update on Currencies Nov 17, 2021]:Ordinarily, this might be a good thing for stocks. Not this time, as it echos the dollar’s strength against the euro. continued for members… … continue reading →

A Turning Point

Per our analog, today is the next significant turning point – important in terms of confirming the direction and distance of the market’s next move. It has done an excellent job of forecasting the reversals, rallies and drops since we first posted it on May 13 [see: Analog Watch.] The first time I came across … continue reading →

Productivity: Worst Since 1947

The first quarter decline in non-farm productivity was the largest since 1947. The chart below from briefing.com shows the 7.5% plunge, contrasted with an 11.6% increase in unit labor costs. If the country had locked down during this time, you might be able to make an argument that a recession isn’t necessarily coming. But, this … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jun 1, 2022

Futures are moderately higher this morning as algos respond enthusiastically to Salesforce’s earnings and ignore the ongoing meltdown in mortgage applications and uptick in COVID cases.  Here’s a snapshot of testing results at my daughter’s college, which finally reinstated a mask mandate after the positivity rate reached 10%. I think they could use a primer … continue reading →