Markets are flat following yesterday’s 1.5% move higher engineered by a stunning 12% VIX smackdown off Wednesday’s highs.
continued for members… (more…)
Tag: gas
-
Charts I’m Watching: Aug 3, 2022
The VIX nonsense continues, ramping futures back above the SMA100 with the help of Jim Bullard, Fed president and occasional CNBC host, who insists there is no recession – just like he insisted inflation wouldn’t be a problem.
Whether there is or not, the market will never reflect one as long as this kind of nonsense goes on.
continued for members… (more…) -
Two More Backtests to Watch
Futures are off modestly this morning as the 10Y approaches our next downside target: a backtest of both its decades old falling price channel and the rising channel from its 2020 lows.
continued for members… (more…) -
Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2022
Futures are off moderately following an algo-driven meltup in July that shook the bears and reset sentiment.
continued for members… (more…) -
FOMC Day: Jul 27, 2022
Futures have ramped almost 1% overnight – a common occurrence lately, especially in advance of a Fed decision.
Even the durable goods orders beat (a miss if you’re looking for the Fed to slow their rate hikes) did nothing to thwart the algo-driven meltup.continued for members… (more…)
-
Holding the Line
Can VIX be contained for another few days? If you want to know what’s going to happen in the market this week, that’s the critical question.
As weak earnings reports and economic data have dribbled out over the past week, VIX has tested its 200-day moving average almost every day. Every time it comes close, it gets smacked back down. So far, those tasked with preventing another leg down in stocks have been able to hold the line.
It’s how ES, directed by algos, climbed back above its 50-day moving average and managed to remain there. So far, at least.
continued for members… (more…) -
Fast and Furious
Between an FOMC meeting, consumer confidence, GDP, durable goods, PCE, consumer sentiment, new home sales and a slew of important earnings calls, this week promises to be one of the most important so far in 2022.
Somewhere in all that data we should learn whether the economy is really in a recession (spoiler alert: it is.) The market’s response could be both fast and furious.
Futures are up modestly but fading as we approach the open.
continued for members… (more…) -
Charts I’m Watching: Jul 22, 2022
It’s another one of those mornings where ES is taking its cues from a timely VIX smackdown, erasing a modest overnight loss and promising to add to yesterday’s rally.
But, today is actually different, with the 10Y gapping lower as stocks creep higher.
It could be a delayed reaction to yesterday’s sharp selloff in oil and gas. On the other hand, it could be a sign of turbulence ahead.continued for members… (more…)
-
Fixing Gas Prices
Gasoline futures (RBOB) have reached our 200-day moving average target set on March 3 [see: The Devil You Know] after having broken out of a falling flag pattern. Then…
…nothing would be as effective at punishing Russia and helping to solve the inflation problem as crashing the oil market…If oil does retreat, stocks should too. Reversing at the .786 would be a good start……as would RB reversing at its 1.618.
…and now.
By falling 33% since then, RB has given the economy several gifts, chief among them the opportunity to bring inflation down – if retail follows suit. EIA reported 4.272 per gallon for the month of March. July is shaping up as 4.41 – a tiny drop compared to futures prices.The YoY increase in retail prices would remain elevated at 45%, down from June’s 60.7% but in line with average increases during Mar-May, when CPI averaged 8.46%.
Even if RB were to decline further, it face falling comps from August 2021. Retail prices remained steady from July to August. So, the onus is now on retailers to make a difference. And, something tells me they’re rather enjoying their windfall profits.
The top five oil companies – Shell, ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron and ConocoPhillips – saw their Q1 profits triple from 2021 to 2022. ExxonMobil, for instance, netted $2.7 billion in Q1 2021 and $8.8 billion in Q1 2022. It is expected to report over $10 billion in Q2. Taking into account futures prices, it is obvious that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has provided cover for what’s really just good old American greed.
Meanwhile, equities markets are trying to make sense of the ECB’s 50 bps rate hike (all the way up to zero!)
Hate to tell you, Ms. Lagarde, but 0% in an 8.6% inflationary environment with a 2% inflation target is still wildly stimulative – not to mention delusional.continued for members… (more…)
-
A Better Fit
Yesterday’s mind-bending rally made very little sense except for the fact that it both washed out many more weak bears and resulted in a more logical placement of ES’ downside target.
I’ll explain.continued for members… (more…)
