I called a top in SPX on May 20, 2015 [see: The Last Big Butterfly] because it was about to reach the 1.618 Fib extension at 2138 — our upside target from way back in 2012. SPX peaked the following day and fell over 300 points before it was all over. What I didn’t notice … continue reading →
Tag Archives: fed
A sharp drop in interest rates has traditionally been a negative for stocks. The chart below shows that most significant declines in 10-year yields over the years were associated with steep drops in the S&P 500. Usually, equity losses precipitated the drops in yield. As stock declines accelerate, money flows into bonds — raising prices … continue reading →
As discussed yesterday, stocks spent the night building a cushion based on VIX (currently off 5.4%) in preparation for tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. It started just before the close, yesterday, and has built to a 6-pt gain in the futures.Actually, it’s been less of a rally, lately, and more of an effort to maintain ES at … continue reading →
Markets tend to moves higher on Fed minutes days, even if the news isn’t all that positive. It’s all about convincing investors that the FOMC has their best interests at heart — that all they’re worried about is making sure that stocks continue to rally. Today’s session is slightly complicated, then, by ADP employment which came … continue reading →
SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected. All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout. There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →
Only a couple of years ago, central bankers became adept at repairing the damage done to stocks after big shocks. That changed with Brexit, when the strategy shifted to pushing stocks as high as possible before the damage was done… and, still doing all the requisite ramping after the fact. They perfected the technique after the … continue reading →
Hint: it’s the same reason the “market” hasn’t corrected much at all for the past six weeks. And, no, there’s no free lunch involved. The day started with some tragic news out of Brussels. ISIS terrorists attacked innocent civilians at the airport and a metro station, killing dozens and wounding hundreds. Brussels is the de … continue reading →
April was the most grueling month I’ve experienced since starting pebblewriter.com. The month started only 6 points below the all-time high of 1576 and ended at the trend line connecting that high with the year 2000 high of 1552. Nearly every session begged the question: will SPX make a new all-time high? Seventeen of the … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 9:25 AM The EURUSD is still trying to change trajectories (purple channel to red), but hasn’t been able to break out yet. The dollar is similarly facing a change in direction if the red channel can hold. Judging from the futures, SPX is set to react off the neckline and TL we’ve been … continue reading →
PLEASE NOTE THAT MEMBERSHIP RATES ARE SET TO INCREASE ON MARCH 4. * * * * * * * * A new day, a new bounce. As we discussed late yesterday, SPX has reached the bottom of the purple channel that’s guided it since 1343. So, naturally, we’ll get … continue reading →