NFP came in at 303K vs 200K estimates, a huge beat which, combined with a decline in the unemployment rate, argues against any near term rate cuts. ES is all over the map this morning, but has given up much of its overnight ramp and is approaching our next downside target. With CPI coming out … continue reading →
Tag Archives: DXY
Futures are off this morning as algos digest the prospect of persistently high inflation and rising interest rates. The 20-day moving average continues to matter. continued for members… … continue reading →
We’ve seen this movie before. For years, the yen carry trade has been a critical element of the equity price support toolbox. But, all good things must come to an end. When the yen gets too cheap, Japanese inflation becomes problematic as the cost of importing food and energy soars. Aside from exposing the ludicrousness … continue reading →
Many bears have simply given up betting on a downside that, despite plentiful recession indicators, feels increasingly unlikely. Since the S&P 500 completed its Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern back in December, the index has piled on nearly 14% [see: A Look Ahead at 2024.] The many, many bulls point to a generally strong economy, … continue reading →
In a repeat of the most effective algo move of the past 10+ years, VIX broke down following the Fed’s no-news rate decision and press conference yesterday. As always, this allowed equities to leapfrog an area of stubborn overhead resistance. continued for members… … continue reading →
Markets are at all-time highs as we await the FOMC’s latest decision on interest rates. Note that we’re going on 21 months of a yield curve inversion, the longest since August 1978 to May 1980. Interestingly, the market was flirting with new, all-time highs back then as well. Also interesting, that was one of many … continue reading →
In his January press conference, Fed Chief Jay Powell accepted some responsibility for the sharp rise in housing prices during the pandemic. “We’re also well aware that when we cut rates at the beginning of the pandemic, for example, the … housing industry was helped more than any other industry.” This statement implies that, were … continue reading →
Futures are flat this OPEX morning as algos weigh the impact of higher than expected inflation, driven largely by rising oil and gas prices.continued for members… … continue reading →
February PPI came in at twice expectations: 0.6% versus 0.3%. In a replay of the CPI print, stocks dipped for a few seconds before resuming their overnight ramp as algos were more focused on VIX dropping through its 50-DMA just in time for OPEX. VIX did pop above the 50-DMA…for several seconds. It got better.Indicators … continue reading →
The last time VIX cratered to below its 50-day moving average in two days, ES popped over 3%. Then, as now, SPX had committed the egregious sin of dipping below its 10-day moving average as it approached important Fibonacci resistance. The difference, now, is that SPX is on the brink of a breakout above that … continue reading →