Futures have bounced back from overnight lows in advance of Jay Powell’s comments at 12pm ET at the Economic Club of NY. continued for members… … continue reading →
Tag Archives: DXY
Escalating carnage in the Middle East points to a protracted and increasingly complex set of circumstances for markets, with oil prices and currencies confused as to how to respond. Futures are off moderately this morning, supporting our notion that a 200-DMA tag is still in the cards. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately, backtesting the recently broken channel after much stronger than expected retail sales. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up moderately, running into their own channel top following VIX’s recent retreat from resistance, continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly following establishment of a new rising channel. continued for members… … continue reading →
September PPI came in at 0.5% versus 0.3% expectations, briefly driving down futures prices…until VIX was hammered back down. Its 200-day moving average continues to be the critical threshold for algos. It remains to be seen whether tomorrow’s CPI print can also be ignored. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are testing the upper bounds of the channel from Sep 14. Judging from VIX, currencies and the commodities we watch, ES won’t break out just yet – thus allowing SPX to fully backtest its 200-day moving average. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures came within 7 points of our 200-day moving average target overnight, begging the question: was that close enough for a legitimate backtest? SPX itself is still 15 points away, close enough by Aug-Oct 2019 standards but nowhere near the overshoot experienced this past March. The more important question is whether the factors driving stocks … continue reading →
We’ve been accurately forecasting USDJPY for over 12 years, starting with recognition of a falling wedge that yielded a huge breakout in 2011 [see: USDJPY – How Low Can it Go?] and evolving to an understanding of the importance of the Yen Carry Trade. The Japanese economy is a hot mess, but the chart patterns … continue reading →
Futures added to their overnight gains following release of softer than expected August PCE (+0.4% versus 0.5%.) It remains to be seen whether the cash market can continue to whistle past the government shutdown graveyard. continued for members… … continue reading →