Mideast Worries Mount

Escalating carnage in the Middle East points to a protracted and increasingly complex set of circumstances for markets, with oil prices and currencies confused as to how to respond. Futures are off moderately this morning, supporting our notion that a 200-DMA tag is still in the cards. continued for members… … continue reading →

PPI Hotter Than Expected

September PPI came in at 0.5% versus 0.3% expectations, briefly driving down futures prices…until VIX was hammered back down. Its 200-day moving average continues to be the critical threshold for algos. It remains to be seen whether tomorrow’s CPI print can also be ignored. continued for members… … continue reading →

Oh, So Close

Futures came within 7 points of our 200-day moving average target overnight, begging the question: was that close enough for a legitimate backtest?  SPX itself is still 15 points away, close enough by Aug-Oct 2019 standards but nowhere near the overshoot experienced this past March. The more important question is whether the factors driving stocks … continue reading →

Update on USDJPY: Sep 29, 2023

We’ve been accurately forecasting USDJPY for over 12 years, starting with recognition of a falling wedge that yielded a huge breakout in 2011 [see: USDJPY – How Low Can it Go?] and evolving to an understanding of the importance of the Yen Carry Trade. The Japanese economy is a hot mess, but the chart patterns … continue reading →