pebblewriter

Tag: DXY

  • Fed Whispering

    The FOMC’s meeting gets underway today. Like most, this one seems very consequential. The Street is divided on whether or not the Fed has done enough to combat inflation as well as the necessity of a recession.

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  • MSFT’s Warning

    According to Reuters, Microsoft’s Chief Executive Officer, Satya Nadella, and other Microsoft executives used the words “caution” and “cautious” at least six times during yesterday’s call.

    The stock, already locked into a falling channel from last November…

    …reversed its initial pop and is leading the broader indices lower this morning.  Remember, MSFT is the second largest component of the S&P 500.  Futures are off over 1% as we approach the open.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 23, 2023

    Futures are essentially flat this morning after Friday’s OPEX panic to regain the 200-day moving average.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 20, 2023

    Futures are marginally higher ahead of 2023’s first options expiration.

    Note that the 2022 Review and 2023 Forecasts are both completed.

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  • Reshuffling

    Futures are up over 0.65% even as VIX has popped 6.25% in the after hours.

    What gives?

    There’s actually a lot of reshuffling going on this morning, with important implications for currencies and equities.

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  • Taking a Knee

    Futures are up moderately as we approach the open, gaining back much of the losses suffered yesterday in the wake of a dismal pending home sales print (-4.0% versus -0.8% expected, the worst since inception in 2001.) Prices fell MoM for the fourth month in a row.

    At this point, it appears the bulls are ready to take a knee and let the clock run out on 2022. Unfortunately, 2023 should prove even more difficult.

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  • Good Enough

    It seems the algos are content to hold the current line instead of rallying into the end of the year – this Friday.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 27, 2022

    S&P futures are quiet this morning, back to even after being up about 30 points overnight.continued for members… (more…)

  • Give and Take

    What the algos giveth, David Tepper (bearish) and Q3 GDP (+3.2% vs 2.9% est. and -0.6% last) taketh away. Futures are off sharply as we approach the open.

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  • BoJ Rolls the Dice

    The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates at or below zero for years. Their bet was that the suppression of interest rates (by purchasing Japan’s net issuance, the BoJ now owns over 50%) would offer sufficient protection against both inflation and the 263% debt:GDP – exacerbated by the rapid depreciation of the yen.

    Investors, including yours truly, have had their doubts. While effective at propping up equity prices [see: The Yen Carry Trade Explained], the yen’s plunge greatly amplified food and energy price increases. Inflation reached 3.6% in October.  It seemed as though something would eventually have to give.

    It just did.

    The BoJ just announced that they would allow rates to move to as high as 0.5%, sending the 10Y soaring from 25 to 42 bps…

    …and the USDJPY plunging (yen strengthening) by 3.3% – below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Feb 2021.

    The BoJ is essentially betting that the small increase in rates will

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