Futures are off about 30 points on disappointing earnings from stocks such as TSLA, AXP, KEY, etc. and a continuing slump in oil and gas.
VIX is even popping as we approach the open. If it holds, the rollover in equities will have officially begun.
continued for members… (more…)
Futures are off moderately on light volume…
… and, surprise!, a rebound in VX futures, but not VIX itself. Oh yeah, Friday is OPEX.
continued for members… (more…)
ES is up 1.3% in the past week. All it took was a 15% beatdown in VIX.
continued for members… (more…)
VIX came within .01 of its previous lows on Friday…
…leaving plenty of doubt as to the algos’ next move. Today, we should see some resolution as moving averages start to roll over.
continued for members… (more…)
March retail sales came in at -1.0% versus -0.4% expected and -0.2% previous. Core slipped 0.3%. Early reaction is that the drop wasn’t enough to forestall another rate hike in May. So far, the futures have taken the news in stride.
But, it remains to be seen whether the algos will view the setup as positively. VIX’s previous bounces off the TL from Jan 2018 have been tough on stocks.
continued for members… (more…)
After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it…
…on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY.
As we discussed yesterday, 80% of the MoM decline was due to the sharp drop in gasoline prices.
Also out this morning, credit portfolio managers agree with the Fed’s assessment that the economy is headed for recession. It’s a troubling backdrop as we enter earnings season in the midst of a credit crunch.
continued for members… (more…)
For the first time in over two years, core CPI topped headline. Core, which ignores food and gas prices, climbed 0.4% MoM and 5.6% YoY, while headline came in at 0.1% MoM and 5.0% YoY.
Not surprisingly, futures jumped at the news that headline CPI had dropped. But, our charts still show an important risk just ahead.
continued for members… (more…)
Job cuts rose to 228K (vs 200K expected) last week. It will officially register as a drop, however, as the previous week was revised from 198K to 246K. When viewed through the prism of new highs in bankruptcies and an earnings implosion… 
…it’s not too surprising that futures are drifting lower.
continued for members… (more…)
After reaching our next upside target, futures have settled into a pause.
No surprise, as the algo factors are doing the same.
continued for members… (more…)
It was touch and go on Friday as XLE pushed above its 200-day moving average and WTI smacked into its 50-day. Fortunately for oil bulls and inflation enthusiasts, OPEC+ was watching the same charts and took action.
continued for members… (more…)
