pebblewriter

Category: Charts I’m Watching

  • Charts I’m Watching: May 23, 2022

    Futures are up sharply following Friday’s 140-point reversal which finally saw SPX/ES reach the -20% mark. As we discussed last week, the market should surprise many this week.

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  • Sure OPEX, But Then What?

    Futures are up about 1% this morning – par for the course for an options expiration Friday. The Chinese prime rate cut is no doubt helping.

    But, what happens next week as new and pending home sales, durable goods, FOMC minutes, GDP, PCE and Michigan Sentiment come rolling in? This will be a serious test of the market’s ability to hold its lows, let alone continue to bounce.

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  • Follow the Leader

    One of the many wild cards in trading is the tension between the cash markets and the futures. SPX, for instance, already came within 4 points of our downside target at 3854.90 – which was 20% off the Jan 4 highs. But 20% off for ES means 3846.60 – 8 1/2 points below the lows it registered last week.

    The upshot is that while SPX came reasonably close to a bounce spot, ES was a little further away.  This raises the prospect of an after-hours “do over” where ES gets the chance to tag some solid support.

    If the tag comes during trading hours with SPX dropping through its support, things could get even uglier than we saw yesterday.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 18, 2022

    We’re seeing more backtesting this morning, consolidation after yesterday’s strong surge.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 17, 2022

    Our analog is off and running, with futures up sharply overnight… …and VIX collapsing as expected.It’s still early stages, but the first few days have been encouraging with SPX up about 5% since last Thursday’s bottom call.

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  • Analog in Play

    Futures are all over the map this morning, with the overnight losses largely erased at one point.

    The key, though, is that SPX bounced back above a key Fib level after tagging its 20% target last week. Although it’s still early stages, our analog is in play.

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  • Analog Watch: May 13, 2022

    Friday the 13th – an inauspicious day to break a new analog!  With SPX nailing our downside target and futures breaking out of the falling wedge pattern yesterday, we’re off to the races.

    These things don’t always work out. But, when they do, it can be a career-making trading opportunity. The one which worked out absurdly well was back in 2011. The 22% correction played out almost exactly as forecast, with the vicious 11-day, 18% plunge starting on the very day and within 1 point of what the analog promised. You can read all about it HERE.

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  • The Big Picture: May 12, 2022

    SPX closed below important support yesterday, suggesting that the current leg down isn’t yet over. Indeed, things could get worse.continued for members… (more…)

  • Bitcoin’s Meltdown

    BTC reached our next downside target at 28,600 last night, then dropped as low as 25,401 before bouncing back to current levels.

    It’s not unusual for BTC to overshoot important support. And, this .618 Fib level is theoretically important support. But, it’s also important to remember that a bounce is sometimes just a backtest of newly formed resistance before another leg down.

    We’ve been bearish on BTC since 66,432 in October 2021. We were a little early, but maintained our posture ever since with with the exception of the Dec 2021 and Jan 2022 bounces – a stance which has produced exceptional gains.

    We’ll take a fresh look at BTC and whether it’s worth trying to catch this falling knife.

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  • CPI’s Dip: Is It Enough?

    Headline CPI dipped from 8.5% to 8.3% for April. While a very modest decline, at least it wasn’t an increase. As it was, futures immediately sold off nearly 100 points.The benefit of such a drop from a charting standpoint it that it might enable SPX to reach our 3956.64 target on the open (it came within 1.53 at yesterday’s lows.) It might even allow the 20%-off mark to come into view.

    It also enabled several other targets to be tagged.  Gold finally dropped to our 200-day moving average target…

    …and BTC is within 411 (so far) of our 28,600 target.The big question, of course, is whether the support (which almost everything we chart has reached) will hold or not.

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