The big day is finally here. Everybody’s arguing whether the FOMC will deliver a 25 or 50-bps cut. The real question: Will the market care?
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Category: Charts I’m Watching
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Charts I’m Watching: Sep 17, 2024
Futures are up moderately after retail sales confirmed the economic slowdown that should accommodate tomorrow’s FOMC rate cut.
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Charts I’m Watching: Sep 16, 2024
Equities are up slightly ahead of Wednesday’s important FOMC rate decision.
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NFP Supports Rate Cut Expectations
August nonfarm payrolls came in at 142k versus 165k expected while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%, underscoring the Fed’s assessment that the economy is slowing enough to justify a 25 bps rate cut later this month.
Futures rallied on the news and are slightly higher after tagging our next downside target overnight.
Just a reminder…I will be off next week but will post on an occasional basis if anything unexpected occurs in the markets.continued for members… (more…)
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Mind the Gap
Futures are flat this morning following unemployment data that supports the widely held expectation of a rate cut when the FOMC meets Sep 17-18.
The algos are presently concerned with the yield curve, which continues to warn of further downside, tomorrow’s jobs report, and a pesky gap which refuses to be ignored.continued for members… (more…)
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Update on Oil & Gas: Sep 4, 2024
Oil and gas futures have both tagged our next downside targets from June [see: Update on Oil & Gas, June 6, 2024.].
We’ll take a look at the road ahead and what it means for the equity and bond markets.continued for members… (more…)
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Charts I’m Watching: Sep 4, 2024
Lots of targets were tagged yesterday, beginning with SPX which nailed our 50-day moving average target.
There’s a reason, however, that futures are off even more this morning.
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Charts I’m Watching: Sep 3, 2024
Futures are off moderately this morning as ES spends its twelfth day in a narrow range around its .886 Fib retracement.
August ISM manufacturing will be released at 10am ET, which should determine on which side of the trend line from Aug 28 futures will fall.continued for members… (more…)
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PCE In Line: Aug 30, 2024
July PCE was in line with expectations: 0.2% MoM for headline and core, 2.5% YoY (2.6% excluding food and energy.) Personal income beat at 0.3% versus 0.2% and personal spending beat at 0.5% versus 0.3%.
The print does nothing to disturb expectations of a 25 bps rate cut in September. Futures are up modestly, leaving ES at our targeted price even though a 50-DMA backtest never quite materialized.
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Market Survives NVDA Print
NVDA fell as much as 7% following earnings and guidance which failed to excite, but has rebounded to a 4.2% loss as we approach the open. If it can’t hold 122.62 after the open, our 110 target is the next significant support.
The broader market was already having a tough day before the NVDA print. As has happened frequently this past week, the algos got busy and ES rebounded strongly overnight.
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