The macro outlook has certainly changed over the past two days. Will the FOMC ignore it or take it into account when issuing their interest rate decision later today?

ES is within 11 points of our IH&S target at 5984.

continued for members…

This completes ES’ backtest of its own broken rising wedge, although it can still go higher by bumping along the bottom of the wedge for days on end. A closeup of the daily ES shows an impending 10/20 cross.

While SPX has rejoined its rising wedge, a very bullish development should it survive. But, VIX hasn’t made new lows… …and, in fact, the VIX RSI has reached TL support.If VIX is done, then what could drive stocks higher? It’s hard to imagine the current financial establishment doing much to cheer on a Trump rally.

In fact, I fully expect Jay Powell to resign sometime between now and inauguration day. Might the FOMC have read the tea leaves and see the impending inflation increase? I have no doubt that they do. But, as we’ve discussed before, the more likely time to pause their cuts is at the December meeting – meaning they’ll probably proceed with a 25 bps cut today but note/imply in their outlook or during the presser that a pause is under consideration.