It was a typical Fed press conference, with Powell ducking and dancing around any substantive revelations, when someone asked whether the election would affect the Fed’s policy decisions. It was no surprise that Powell fell back on the usual 200-word “data dependence” answer that we’ve all heard before.
Then someone asked the question that was really on everyone’s mind: Would Powell step down if Trump requested it? Powell responded with a one-word answer: “No.” Ladies and gentlemen, 2025 just got a lot more interesting.
I was dead wrong when suggesting that Powell couldn’t resign fast enough. I assumed that Powell would rather crawl through broken glass than spend another 4 years under Trump’s withering criticism. Apparently Jay is made of sterner stuff.
And, why not? Trump’s constant and very public pressure was at least partly responsible for the Fed keeping interest rates as low as they did even after inflation increased. Somewhere on the road from 2% to 9.1% CPI, Powell must have been wishing for a rematch. Now he’ll have one.
ES has topped its IH&S target and is eyeing a backtest, with a potential tag of the 1.618 at 6064.50.
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