UPDATE: 3:30 PMWe headed back up and are testing this morning’s high of 1239.99. I would typically expect some negative divergence to set up before calling this the top. Profit taking wouldn’t be a terrible idea, especially as much of the action has been in the overnight futures lately. On the other hand, I think … continue reading →
Category Archives: Charts I’m Watching
UPDATE: 4:00 PM Well, that was exciting. Not! Everything mentioned at 1:05 is still the case and, at this rate, will be the case for weeks to come. I believe it was just too much to ask the market to maintain the strength of this morning’s rally in the face of the negative economic news, … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:30 PM Rally showing great breadth, could go quite a ways before erasing the recent oversold technicals. Spit-balling here, but the potential inverse H&S; pattern setting up could be good for 40 points or so. It would intersect with a TL off the 1292 top as well as one of our channel lines and … continue reading →
UPDATE: 11:30 AM The futures held the 1.618 line of 1167 until about 20 minutes ago, while SPX’s opening sliced through its 1.618 at 1177 like a hot knife through butter. Now at 1164, is the rebound idea dead? EUR and DX are both pushing the bounds of their respective wedges (and Gartley’s). If stocks … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:50 PM An updated look at the regression channel since the top… Looks like the midline should provide a good turning point, although a similar spot in 2008 fell quickly to that declining market. Re 2008, next Friday is 2011’s 150th trading day since the May top. This proved to be the ultimate turning … continue reading →
UPDATE: 11:50 AM Watching the falling wedge set up on EUR/USD: The Butterfly I’ve been watching overshot the 1.272 extension, but the decline seems to be running out of steam. We’ll see if the 1.618 extension at 1177 has any better luck. That would also mark the 2.24 extension for the Crab pattern. We’re also … continue reading →
UPDATE: 12:05 PM The market seems to be in full OPEX mode, with every attempt at a breakout — up or down — quickly aborted. At this moment, it’s pushing toward the downside, which is a good reason to revisit the harmonic picture. A bullish Butterfly pattern (in red) that began Nov 1 finishes at … continue reading →
Finally, a nice crack in the market. We’re currently testing the 1215 area I’ve referred to as the line in the sand. A break here greatly helps the bearish case, but I’m remaining cautious until we move decisively through these levels. The chart below shows negative divergence on the 5-minute RSI. Note also a potential … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:15 PM Here’s a little better view of the alternatives I see for the next move. Note the triangle apex is about December 5, which matches the 2011/2008 analog precisely. Note also that the past two OPEX closing prices have been roughly in a straight line with this month’s 1260. Also, 1257.58 is the … continue reading →