The US and Iran are still shooting at each other (and others in the region) but so far Trump hasn’t ordered the carpet bombing to resume. And, I don’t think he will. I think the few intelligent people surrounding him who haven’t been fired yet and are willing to speak their minds have explained that he needs an off ramp — and that killing off “a whole civilization” is probably not the best way to go about it. Of course, timing is not on his side.

He needs said off ramp well before the November mid-terms or he’s looking at impeachment #3. The Iranians no doubt realize this, and would do well to drag out the war (nothing mini about it from their standpoint) until November. If Trump were to be neutered, they would have much less to fear from the US.

There are wild cards, of course. China’s last shipments of oil from the Middle East are steaming into port right about now, and they’re going to start hurting. Will they decide to get more “proactive” in reasserting their rights to import oil? Will the US enforce the blockade, thereby preventing China from importing that oil? Could being proactive result in their own blockade of, say, Taiwan and our insatiable appetite for semiconductors? So many questions…

In the meantime, futures are up modestly because it got dark last night, and that’s what they do whenever that happens.

While CL hasn’t made higher highs in a while…

…RB certainly has. And I think gas prices are definitely more important right now.

The bond market seems to agree…

…even though the 2s10s remains unnaturally subdued.