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BA has just about reached our channel top target from Jul 3.  From Algos to VIX:

BA’s [chart] indicates another interim bottom.

It has now bounced over 12% since our Jun 3 bottom call signaled by ES’s 2.24 tag and has nearly reached the top of the new, gentler falling purple channel, now at about 380.  It’s an important test for the stock — boosted by a monumental PR and its on-again off-again stock repurchase plan.

Note that the current forecast page has been updated for all major charts including

continued for members…The big picture indicates some nice gains for the stock if it’s able to break out here.  The .236 at 410.12, for instance, would make a particularly nice target and would coincide with a Jul 30 SPX top.

As we’ve discussed, the downside potential is to the white channel midline around 336.  If that breakdown down, things could get very ugly very quickly.

Note that a breakout of the purple channel would, at the very least, delay the next leg down by establishing a new, falling channel.  The red one below is just an example.I’ve added SPX (thin purple line) to show just how co-dependent it is with BA.  BA’s ability to levitate above its SMA200 has provided a consistent boost to the algos.  Its reversal at the SMA200 has been quite detrimental.

But, perhaps the more important comparison is with the Dow, since BA accounts for nearly 10% of the DJIA.  Note that the DJIA is, itself, sitting at a very important inflection point.While I certainly wouldn’t count BA out (big boost and renewed buying in its share repurchase plan on Wednesday?) it must prove its upside potential — just like DJIA.

Unless VIX is giving us yet another head fake, the path ahead continues to look bearish.VIX, of course, has been the all-time champion of head fakes.  If it can’t push up past the white channel midline (and SMA100) at 14.77, we could be in for another week of meltup into the July 30 analog top.One last item…AAPL.  It has nearly reached the top of the falling white channel.  I’d be comfortable shorting it between here and 207 with the idea that it’ll at least backtest the SMA200 and white channel bottom at 187 and, if our analog plays out, the red .786 at 157.69 or .886 at 150.36 with potential to the white .786 at 120.29.

I have a lunch appointment and won’t be returning until after 3pm.  In the meantime, check out the updated current forecasts page HERE.