Many of the stocks and indices I follow are sitting right at resistance, as is ES this morning.AAPL has reached our target at the top of its falling channel……DB is bumping up against the TL from Jan 2018… …and BA is within striking distance of the channel top at which it failed yesterday.With VIX having reversed yesterday’s breakout and slumped back below its SMA10, the writing is on the wall — but, ES hasn’t yet broken out.  Why not?continued for members…

The rest of the charts suggest support for a bump from here.  We start with the slump in the euro (the real test is the channel top at 1.1116)…

…which is giving DXY a nice boost. But, USDJPY is still slumping — potentially keeping its powder dry?Oil and gas, which have all the justification they need to rally with the latest developments in Iran…aren’t. And the 10Y is doing a whole lot of nothing just yet. If our analog is valid, SPX has one week to make it to the vicinity of 3047.  But, as we’ve discussed many times, coming within 1% as it did on the 15th was quite possibly close enough.

Yes, VIX has broken back below its red fan line.  But, it has yet to plunge below its SMA10 and has a ways to go before dropping though its .886 (again) at 12.44.Bottom line, although all the factors are doing enough to prevent a meltdown, they’re not doing enough to cause a breakout — not yet, at least.

Until they do, we could remain in limbo.  If you’re looking for an excuse to go long, pay attention to ES and that TL off the recent highs.Frankly, I’m not convinced it’s worth the trouble.

There’s another trendline off the recent lows which, combined with the SMA10, provide a decent short signal for those who are “waiting for a sign.”

More later.

UPDATE:  2:30 PM

There’s the meltup we know and love…

VIX – Mr. Reliable… …with a little help from bounces in RB and CL.  Look for the bounces to fizzle out once stocks have reached their mark. UPDATE:  EOD

Note that SPX has set up a sloppy Crab/Butterfly pattern that terminates at the 1.618 of 3045.43 – just two points shy of the large scale 2.618.  Why sloppy?  The initial reversal occurred just above the .707 Fib.  Technically, a Crab should see its first retracement come at or below the .618 and a Butterfly should reverse very close to the .786.  It’s all good…