pebblewriter

Author: pebblewriter

  • Jobless Claims Pile On

    Job cuts rose to 228K (vs 200K expected) last week. It will officially register as a drop, however, as the previous week was revised from 198K to 246K.  When viewed through the prism of new highs in bankruptcies and an earnings implosion… …it’s not too surprising that futures are drifting lower. continued for members… (more…)

  • ADP Misses

    March ADP payrolls came in at +145K versus +210K estimates, strengthening the stagflation/recession argument. Futures have drifted lower following yesterday’s sharp decline, suggesting at least a channel bottom/10-day SMA backtest. Keep an eye out for ISM services coming out at 10ET.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 4, 2023

    After reaching our next upside target, futures have settled into a pause.

    No surprise, as the algo factors are doing the same.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • The Chartists at OPEC+

    It was touch and go on Friday as XLE pushed above its 200-day moving average and WTI smacked into its 50-day. Fortunately for oil bulls and inflation enthusiasts, OPEC+ was watching the same charts and took action.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Inflation Subsides

    Futures are up modestly following the Feb PCE print: 0.3% monthly vs 0.4% expected and 5.0% annual versus 5.1% expected. Core came in at 0.3% and 4.6%.

    In addition to inflation continuing to fall, the spread between headline and core continues to fall, reflecting an ongoing convergence.

    Will it hold up next month, when the YoY gas price delta plunges to -19%, the lowest since Nov 2020 when CPI stood at 1.17%?

    continued for members… (more…)

  • GDP, PCE on Track

    This morning’s economic news came in pretty much on target: not too hot, not too cold.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 29, 2023

    Futures are up nicely on a twofer: a not so subtle VIX breakdown… …and a very unsubtle NKD rescue (back above the SMA200 just in time for Q1) courtesy of the BoJ’s USDJPY meddling.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 28, 2023

    Futures are off marginally as the major indices coast into the end of Q1.

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  • On the Bubble

    Our yield curve model sounded the alarm on Friday. But, by the end of the day, it had backed off and cooler heads prevailed.

    It’s important to recognize, however, that it remains on the bubble, with only a few basis points standing between a rally and another leg down. From a fundamental standpoint, there seems little doubt that the odds of a recession are on the rise.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Fresh Yield Curve Signal

    Our yield curve model has finally sounded the alarm.

    continued for members… (more…)