pebblewriter

Author: pebblewriter

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 3, 2023

    Futures are off slightly following an unbelievable finish to Q2.

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  • PCE in Line, Spending Misses

    May PCE and core PCE were in line with expectations at 0.1% and 0.3% MoM respectively.  YoY core came in at 4.6%, slightly below expectations of 4.7%. The most notable surprise was MoM personal spending which tumbled from 0.6% to 0.1%.

    Futures, already up moderately following VIX’s overnight drop, ramped even higher.

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  • More “Bad” Good News

    Remember that tepid Q1 GDP reading of 1.3%? Never mind. The Commerce Department has decided in its third estimate that the actual growth was 2.0%. This massive revision, regardless of the cause, certainly won’t do much to encourage another Fed pause or reversal. Neither will the lower than expected initial claims or the 4.1% GDP deflator.

    Futures could have trouble holding the 10-day moving average again today.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 28, 2023

    Futures are off moderately on profit taking in NVDA and quarter end positioning following yesterday’s overblown rally…

    …which conspicuously ran out of steam as it backtested the 10-day moving average. Will it be enough to counter VIX, which has been hammered below its own 10-day moving average for an algo-boosting 19 sessions in a row?

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  • Durable Goods Orders Argue for More Hikes

    May durable goods came in much higher than expected: +1.7% versus -1.0 consensus. Goods ex transportation also beat, at 0.6% versus 0.0% consensus.  Suffice it to say these are not the data that support a continued pause, let alone a reversal.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 26, 2023

    Futures are barely lower this morning as we coast into the end of the second quarter on the heels of a rare down week.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 23, 2023

    Futures finally dropped through support overnight despite more heroic efforts by VIX.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 22, 2023

    Futures remain under pressure as we approach the open – despite VIX’s 5% smackdown yesterday.

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  • Powell: Inflation Not Over

    “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go,” Powell asserted in prepared remarks in advance of his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

    Our charts certainly agree. As posted last week, there is little chance of inflation not bouncing back up unless oil and gas prices collapse from current levels.

    Futures are off moderately in anticipation of Powell’s truth-telling.

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  • Charts I’m Watching Jun 20, 2023

    Futures are off modestly following the long holiday weekend, OPEX and much hotter than expected housing starts.

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