Inflation Subsides

Futures are up modestly following the Feb PCE print: 0.3% monthly vs 0.4% expected and 5.0% annual versus 5.1% expected. Core came in at 0.3% and 4.6%.

In addition to inflation continuing to fall, the spread between headline and core continues to fall, reflecting an ongoing convergence.

Will it hold up next month, when the YoY gas price delta plunges to -19%, the lowest since Nov 2020 when CPI stood at 1.17%?

continued for members

Major indices remain close to completing much larger IH&S Patterns…

…as DJI also contemplates a bullish 10/20 cross……and VIX remains on the verge of a breakdown.

I continue to believe this is the usual meltup into quarter-end, just as happened at the end of Q1 2022.But, the bulls clearly have the ability to force the issue via USDJPY, CL and VIX.

Not surprisingly, the bond market is being quite supportive going into quarter-end.UPDATE: 11:30 AM

If you’re nervous as hell about what happens next, this is probably as good a time as any to lighten up.