pebblewriter

Year: 2023

  • Mixed Messages

    Futures bounced off our 50-day MA target and are up sharply on NVDA‘s blowout earnings/forecast, egged on by Speaker McCarthy’s latest promise that a debt ceiling resolution is on the way.

    Of course, this bullishness is unwarranted from a Fed rate hike perspective. Initial claims came in below expectations and Q2 GDP (the deflator was 4.2% vs 4.0 expected) was hotter than expected. Not exactly a scenario that supports a pause/drop.

    Unless VIX plunges below 18.58, this ramp job should be faded.

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  • Fed Minutes: May 24, 2023

    Futures are off about 0.5% in advance of the latest FOMC minutes. While these releases don’t often shed much light on what to expect, they can help us understand what the Fed fears the most. Based on recent comments, the fear of sticky inflation seems to be outweighing the fear of a recession.With the debt ceiling crisis, banking crisis and recession still grabbing headlines, it’s clear that the Fed is still stuck between a rock and a hard place.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 23, 2023

    Today marks the third day in a row that ES has backtested the former resistance at 4190ish. Just a reminder, these things don’t happen by accident.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 22, 2023

    After ramping into OPEX, stocks merely need to contend with the impending debt ceiling crisis, banking crisis, and recession.

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  • Stocks vs Bonds

    The OPEX meltup continued overnight, with futures up modestly to new 9-month highs.

    Powell speaks at 11am ET and might shed some light on the implications of treasury yields which have pushed to new cycle highs – reflecting a much more cautious assessment of the debt ceiling negotiations.

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  • Jawboning an OPEX Rally

    Yesterday’s 1.2% spurt higher was driven not only by the usual push in USDJPY and plunge in VIX, but a healthy dose of hopium regarding the debt ceiling crisis. Congressional and White House reps were nearly unanimous in declaring that a deal is as good as done.

    Whether they’re speaking the truth or simply trying to avoid a market meltdown a la 2011 remains to be seen. Both SPX and ES saw a bullish 10/20 cross, but it could unwind if ES closes back below the former resistance at 4166. Keep on eye on the ever proficuous VIX, which usually triggers algos to buy any significant dips by breaking below support such as the purple channel bottom below.

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  • Debt Ceiling Worries

    We’re starting to see cracks in the equities and bond markets related to the debt ceiling. Interest rates are ratcheting higher. And, although OPEX-related maneuvers are working to prop up stocks, we had a momentary breakdown in SPX yesterday.

    Utilities, a bond proxy for some, have taken a big hit this week as investors shift into shorter-term, less volatile treasuries.

    Which would you rather own, XLU with a beta of .56 and yield of 3.01% or a 6-mo Tsy paying 5.25%?

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  • Retail Sales Miss

    April retail sales came in at 0.4% versus expectations of 0.8%, underscoring the notion that the economy isn’t nearly as strong as the market would have you believe. Futures, already off slightly, have added to their losses.

    It remains to be seen, however, whether the propping up of equities in advance of OPEX and the debt ceiling debacle can be derailed.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 15, 2023

    Futures are up modestly, but fading as the open approaches. In short, it’s just like every other open for the past week.

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  • End of the Line?

    The market has frustrated both bulls and bears lately, vacillating between sharp downturns and even sharper recoveries. But, a close examination of the charts shows two very obvious patterns that suggest the tide is about to turn – not in a good way.

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