pebblewriter

Year: 2023

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 9, 2023

    The prop job continues, with VIX reaching a lower low and the DXY still under pressure.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Jobless Claims Spike Higher

    Initial claims spiked to levels not seen since October 2021, another indication of a slowing economy.  Applications rose by 28,000 to 261,000, well above the consensus of 237K.

    So far, futures have ignored the print.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 7, 2023

    Futures are flat ahead of tomorrow’s initial claims…

    …with VIX plumbing lows not seen since Feb 14, 2020, a mere 10 days before it broke out and soared to 85.47.As we’ve noted countless times, SPX broke out of its 2020-2022 decline only after VIX was hammered below a trend line dating back to Jan 2018.

    If it breaks above the Aug 16, 2022 highs of 4325, it will require lower lows by VIX. Otherwise, 4311.69 remains important overhead resistance.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Close Enough?

    ES came within 4 points of its .618 retracement of the drop from the Jan 4, 2022 highs. SPX came within 12 points of its. From a harmonics standpoint, we’re at a critical potential turning point for equities.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 5, 2023

    Stocks were up sharply on Friday……as VIX plumbed new 2-year lows.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Blowout NFP Complicates Fed’s Job

    Non-farm payrolls exploded higher in May, tallying 339K versus 190K consensus. On the other hand, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%.

    Futures initially slumped, as blowout job gains argue for further Fed tightening. But, VIX was hammered to lows of 15.12, a level not seen since Nov 2021, and the overnight ramp was salvaged, for now.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • ADP’s Big Beat, NFP on Deck

    ADP beat estimates by a mile: 278K versus 160K. This puts even more emphasis on tomorrow’s jobs report as two Fed presidents are suggesting that a pause is in order.Futures have given up their 20+ pt ramp job.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: May 31, 2023

    Futures are off about 0.50% as the opening approaches, continuing a slump which began at our 4243 target from early April.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: May 30, 2023

    The meltup continues on yet another after-hour VIX dump.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Some Like It Hot

    If you’re a retailer, you might be thrilled with the personal income and personal spending beat last month (0.4% vs 0.3% exp and 0.8% versus 0.4% expected.) If you’re a manufacturer, you might be pleased with durable goods coming in at a +1.1% versus the -1.3% expected.

    But, if you’re a member of the FOMC, you have to be chagrined that those hot numbers, combined with hotter core and headline PCE and tightening credit conditions, will force tighter monetary conditions.  The algos agreed for a few minutes, but were quickly reminded of the requirement to take their cues from VIX.

    continued for members… (more…)