pebblewriter

Year: 2023

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 26, 2023

    Futures are barely lower this morning as we coast into the end of the second quarter on the heels of a rare down week.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 23, 2023

    Futures finally dropped through support overnight despite more heroic efforts by VIX.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 22, 2023

    Futures remain under pressure as we approach the open – despite VIX’s 5% smackdown yesterday.

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  • Powell: Inflation Not Over

    “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go,” Powell asserted in prepared remarks in advance of his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

    Our charts certainly agree. As posted last week, there is little chance of inflation not bouncing back up unless oil and gas prices collapse from current levels.

    Futures are off moderately in anticipation of Powell’s truth-telling.

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  • Charts I’m Watching Jun 20, 2023

    Futures are off modestly following the long holiday weekend, OPEX and much hotter than expected housing starts.

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  • No Surprise

    “I can’t believe stocks rallied so strongly into options expiration!” said no one.

    Between VIX’s plunge, the euro’s ramp, and the yield curve’s decimation, bears have had no chance – even as fundamentals argued otherwise.

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  • FOMC Aftermath

    Things got a little hectic after the FOMC’s hawkish pause, but the equity market performed as planned.

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  • FOMC Day: Jun 14, 2023

    According to futures and talking heads, there’s a 94% chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes this afternoon – though perhaps with a hawkish tilt. By our reckoning, equities have piled on at least 6% in the past few weeks in anticipation of this outcome.Is it justified?

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  • Headline CPI Falls, Core Stubborn

    Substantial YoY drops in energy prices continue to dampen headline inflation… …while core inflation gained 0.4% for the third month in a row.

    The comparison between YoY gas prices and CPI illustrates the outsized influence energy prices have on headline inflation.

    Futures, however, popped on the print on the assumption that the Fed will pause its rate hikes despite hotter than expected PCE and employment data that would argue otherwise.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 12, 2023

    Futures ramped up past a key Fib level overnight on hopes that the Fed will pause any further rate hikes this week.  Will SPX follow suit?

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