Futures are off about 0.50% as the opening approaches, continuing a slump which began at our 4243 target from early April.

continued for members…

This seems like a good place from which to start the SMA200 (SPX 3975 / ES 3990) backtest. It would only be around 5%, but of course there’s no guarantee that the support will hold. We’re still looking at  Jun 21-22 as the ideal timing for a low if the selloff occurs.  Our assumption is that EURUSD will also backtest or drop through its own SMA200 and that USDJPY will maintain the 132-142 range, with a drop back through its own SMA200 egging on the bears.

CL and RB are certainly contributing to the bearish mood. And, reminding us that XLE has technically broken down below its neckline again. The last one was a headfake, so we’ll remain cautious.

The 10Y has fallen on the headlines, but is likely to test its SMA200 today.Both the 2Y and 10Y have reversed significantly over the past few days… …but, the 2s10s remains stubbornly low.We would expect to see the 2Y outpace the 10Y to the downside once the debt ceiling crisis abates or as stock losses begin to accelerate.

GLTA.