ADP beat estimates by a mile: 278K versus 160K. This puts even more emphasis on tomorrow’s jobs report as two Fed presidents are suggesting that a pause is in order.Futures have given up their 20+ pt ramp job.

continued for members…The equity charts remain essentially unchanged.

Though VIX is again in position to ruin the bears’ party.Currencies, however, are making a little noise. EURUSD is still slipping lower but USDJPY has dipped back below its SMA10. To be sure, this shouldn’t be important.  But, it’s the first time in 3 weeks and there’s a very strong case to be made for a SMA200 backtest at 137.33. The net effect on DXY should be neutral – unless USDJPY falls through its SMA200.

CL continues to make new lows after having fallen through all MAs and seeing its SMA10 drop through its SMA20 again.  RB is off much more, and similarly has little support in this range. Needless to say, this puts additional pressure on XLE, which is making new lows after falling through the yellow neckline. I’m very uncomfortable suggesting it will fully play out. But, the bottom of the white channel is definitely in play. Obviously, this puts additional pressure on the 10Y which is back below its SMA200.