Stocks have been on a tear since last October’s lows, when the narrative around inflation began to tilt toward a Fed rate hike pause or even a reversal. CPI had fallen from 9.06 to 7.75 and, thanks to falling oil/gas prices, was on its way lower.

Interest rates paid attention, too. The 10Y, which had topped out at 4.33% on Oct 21, began zigzagging lower, reaching 3.25 by Apr 6. Even when it rebounded, it managed to hold to a falling trend line from October. So, what does it mean now that the 10Y has broken out?

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The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything else.

Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach the open.

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Futures are off slightly following an unbelievable finish to Q2.

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Remember that tepid Q1 GDP reading of 1.3%? Never mind. The Commerce Department has decided in its third estimate that the actual growth was 2.0%. This massive revision, regardless of the cause, certainly won’t do much to encourage another Fed pause or reversal. Neither will the lower than expected initial claims or the 4.1% GDP deflator.

Futures could have trouble holding the 10-day moving average again today.

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Futures are off moderately on profit taking in NVDA and quarter end positioning following yesterday’s overblown rally…

…which conspicuously ran out of steam as it backtested the 10-day moving average. Will it be enough to counter VIX, which has been hammered below its own 10-day moving average for an algo-boosting 19 sessions in a row?

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