That Sinking Feeling

As anyone on a budget could tell you, the headline of this post is hardly news. Income isn’t keeping up with expenses, and isn’t likely to any time soon. The Fed might prefer PCE over CPI because it ignores food and gas prices. But, it’s those very categories which are making it difficult for the … continue reading →

Q1 GDP Slumps Further

Stocks are essentially flat following a slight downward revision in Q1 GDP from -1.5% to -1.6% and export numbers which are truly circling the drain. The disappointing data came on the heels of the worst consumer confidence reading since Feb 2021 and three (so far) Fed presidents advocating a 75 bps rate hike in July. … continue reading →

Horse Trading

The ECB’s annual forum is officially underway in Sintra, Portugal, with the market pondering the likely winners and losers. Christine Lagarde and Jay Powell are no doubt doing a little horse trading as both urgently need to address spiraling inflation and neither in a position to afford higher rates. The US can help mitigate inflation … continue reading →

But It Looks Like a Rally…

Following a series of intraday ramps, futures shot up above the 10-day moving average as soon as the market closed. Bogus? Of course. But, the record will reflect (and the algos have responded to) a seemingly bullish move. Chase it at your own peril. Today’s tricks will include trying to get past the 10am New … continue reading →

Oil: Back in the Groove

WTI spent May 2020 through Feb 2022 in a fairly well-defined channel (below, in white) as it recovered from its pandemic lows. It broke out on Mar 1, however, topping 100 and taking only 5 sessions to reach our 130 target which wasn’t schedule to happen until December.Since then, it’s seen a series of fits … continue reading →

Update on Bitcoin: Jun 21, 2022

My apologies for today’s post being so late. Our webhosting company just now fixed the “network connectivity problem in one of [their] clusters.”  I’d be very upset about it except for the fact that this is the very first time in over two years that they’ve ever let me down. This post will be a … continue reading →