pebblewriter

Month: June 2022

  • A Turning Point

    Per our analog, today is the next significant turning point – important in terms of confirming the direction and distance of the market’s next move. It has done an excellent job of forecasting the reversals, rallies and drops since we first posted it on May 13 [see: Analog Watch.] The first time I came across one of these, it worked out spectacularly. I started noticing in May 2011 that the turning points and rallies/declines which had been occurring at that time very closely matched those of the 2007 top.

    Just after Day 32 in late June [see: Deja Vu All Over Again] I began laying the entire roadmap which would presumably end with a very sharp drop of around 20% by Day 70. As it turned out, the S&P 500 plunged 19.6% by Day 69. Details are available HERE.

    The current analog is different in terms of how quickly things will play out. If it plays out, however, the market is in for much greater losses in the months ahead.

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  • Productivity: Worst Since 1947

    The first quarter decline in non-farm productivity was the largest since 1947. The chart below from briefing.com shows the 7.5% plunge, contrasted with an 11.6% increase in unit labor costs. If the country had locked down during this time, you might be able to make an argument that a recession isn’t necessarily coming. But, this slowdown came courtesy of a 2.4% output decrease. In other words, it’s another reason to believe a recession is here and a soft landing ain’t in the cards.

    Futures have been all over the map overnight, but are currently hanging on to the channel bottom from May 20. Note that we finally got that 10/20 cross and are nearing a backtest of the 50-day moving average – just in time to set up a nice trap.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 1, 2022

    Futures are moderately higher this morning as algos respond enthusiastically to Salesforce’s earnings and ignore the ongoing meltdown in mortgage applications and uptick in COVID cases.  Here’s a snapshot of testing results at my daughter’s college, which finally reinstated a mask mandate after the positivity rate reached 10%.

    I think they could use a primer on chart reading…

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