Here we are again. Another chance to find out where the Fed would like SPX to be in the coming days…and what they’re willing to sacrifice in order to make that happen. Our targets for equities, oil and gas, and currencies remain unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: July 2021
We’re still in FOMC meeting meltup mode and still on correction watch. continued for members… … continue reading →
This should be an important week, with a slew of economic data and a Fed rate decision all coming up. Despite last week’s leak higher, we continue on a correction watch. continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s not unusual to see a very deep, extended backtest prior to a selloff. In the old days, we would attribute this to malevolent market makers who wanted to flush out weak shorts before cashing in. The same thing happens these days, though it is typically perpetrated by algorithms and HFTs. As we discussed yesterday, … continue reading →
Futures are flat as we approach the open, off from their overnight highs as VIX crept back above its SMA10 moments ago. At least the sharp rebound answered the question we had regarding the timing of this correction. continued for members… … continue reading →
In our last update [see: May 19 Update] we noted that BTC had reached our downside target of 30,108 months ahead of schedule and was due for a rebound. The bigger picture indicates we should see a reversal here with at least a backtest of the SMA200 at 39,800ish. As it turned out, BTC backtested … continue reading →
ES tagged our first downside target two sessions ahead of schedule yesterday. As my good friend (and brilliant trader) Ed put it… All of our charts remain on track. The algos are trying to make up their “minds.” Is this one of those quick plunges which will be followed by an even quicker recovery, or … continue reading →
We’re seeing a nice start to the correction we forecast last week. We’ve reached our next downside target in the 10Y, which seems to finally have attracted attention from the algos. Remember, there’s still a gap to fill at 1.20%. As expected, USDJPY, CL and RB have rolled over and broken down – leaving futures … continue reading →
Another overnight session of VIX being hammered back below the SMA10 and melting up futures… Will it ever end? ES spent hours bouncing at its SMA10 yesterday, finally breaking down – perhaps as carbon-based investors began contemplating the Fed’s dilemma. But, no surprise, VIX cratered into the close and got ES back above its SMA10 … continue reading →
I’ve recently discussed this very issue with several friends who are a little nervous about the sharp runup in prices…and very nervous about the prospect of a selloff. Most of us remember how ugly things got during the Great Financial Crisis: the sharp rise and the much sharper plunge when the bubble burst. According to … continue reading →