BTC reached our next downside target at the SMA200 [see: May 13 BTC Update] and plunged right through to the next downside target at 30,108 well ahead of schedule.

continued for members…The bigger picture indicates we should see a reversal here with at least a backtest of the SMA200 at 39,800ish. If not, the next downside target is 24,165.

UPDATE:  11:05 AM

Nice bounce going so far…Remember, BTC didn’t reverse as the cycle indicated – instead breaking above the yellow channel top, the salmon channel top and the 2.618 Fib. If the cycle is indeed broken, as it seems to be, then there’s no reason to expect the next cycle low to wait until Sep/Oct as we originally expected. That means that this morning’s low could be it for a while.

However, I am enamored of the idea that the cycle pattern will reassert itself with respect to a backtest of channel lows and the 1.272 Fib at 24,165 in that timeframe.The RSI chart indicates there is more downside to come.

UPDATE:  12:45 PM

There’s the backtest. I would revert to short here but with loose stops at the 2.24 Fib at 40,180. Simply put, the SMA200 should matter. That is, being below it is bearish and above it is bullish.