In our last update [see: May 19 Update] we noted that BTC had reached our downside target of 30,108 months ahead of schedule and was due for a rebound.

The bigger picture indicates we should see a reversal here with at least a backtest of the SMA200 at 39,800ish.

As it turned out, BTC backtested the SMA200 the very next day – failing to break back above it and beginning a long, slow decline which continues to this day.  There are as many opinions about its future as there are billionaires blasting off into space. We’ll take a fresh look at what the charts, which have been incredibly accurate to date, have to say.

continued for members…

BTC has been unable so far to break through a TL connecting its tops from Jun 15 on. Although it is getting a nice bump today – up about 6% – it is still struggling to top even its SMA10 – which remains bearishly below its SMA20. In fact, the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 are all bearishly aligned now.It has also been unable to even backtest its cloud – coming close a few times, but no tags.The 1.272 Fib still aligns with the rising yellow channel bottom at the middle of the cycle which worked fine until the Feb-Apr blowout.

Of course, the breakdown was equally violent – hence the tumble well ahead of the Oct 8 cycle low.

About the only potentially bullish development I see now is the RSI, which is coming up for another test of the TL from the Feb highs. It has failed to break out before, but it will get another shot today or tomorrow.

If it does break through, it still has the SMA20, the SMA50 and the cloud bottom as overhead resistance. But, a breakout above the RSI would be bullish.Bottom line, I expect the falling triangle to continue to dominate the charts for the near term. Whether or not it waits until October to tag 23,600 is another question.

Equity futures are up modestly this morning after yesterday’s big bounce which likely took the huge plunge option off the table (the yellow dot)……and supports the notion of a 3.618 backtest to coincide with the SMA200’s arrival sometime between Aug 16-30. SPX suggests on the open on Aug 18.

Look for ES/SPX to test their SMA10s and flesh out the falling white channels before continuing any more downside.

VIX supports this outcome, and could drive lower equity prices without even making new highs itself.

Note the last test of its daily RSI TL didn’t quite make it, suggesting it wasn’t the Full Monty.VX futures’ falling purple channel looks likely to be broken out of. Currencies are all supporting stocks today, with USDJPY still bouncing and the euro still leaking lower.

Silver still looks weak, though a backtest of the SMA200 wouldn’t surprise……and GC is in the clear so long as it remains on top of the SMA100 and channel bottom with a strong buy signal in the event it breaks back above its SMA200.

Last, TNX has pushed back above its yellow midline, a potentially important development which, on the other hand, could be nothing more than closing the gap it left in its wake on Monday. In continue to be intrigued with the purple target at 8.16 simply because the Fed should want to eliminate all inflation fears in the near future. I have several appointments today, so will be back to update the charts if need be around the close.

GLTA.