In our September update, I noted that DJIA had dropped back below several potentially bearish lines in the sand in late August:

– the huge red channel
– the white 1.272 extension
– the megaphone upper bound

I went on to vent about how the Dow is one of the least reliable indices to forecast using patterns and Fibs.  It’s just too easily/heavily manipulated.

With BoJ and FOMC meetings coming up, I wondered:

Friday’s action, for instance, showed the index closing above the 1.272 and a potential falling channel midline.  Would it really surprise anyone if TPTB were able to push the Dow back above the megaphone/channel top, too?

Guess what?

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There are 3 important charts to consider, today:

DX has reached the top of its falling channel.USDJPY is testing its 200-day moving average at the top of its new, expanded triangle.And, ES just tagged the .786 Fib, the bottom of the broken purple channel, and the .236 line of the rising white channel from 2009.   For now, at least, it has broken out of the falling white channel.  The trick will be remaining above it and maintaining momentum.

Given the stakes, it’s not hard to see why the world’s central banks are united in their efforts to direct our attention from disappointing revenues, overleveraged states and the fact that the “market’s” performance has been mostly driven by currency manipulation (the yen carry trade) and direct intervention in equities.

We looked yesterday at how it works [see: What Really Drives Stock Prices.] The question today is “will it work?”

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Who runs the stock market?  What determines where prices go over time, on a daily basis, or even moment-to-moment?  Is it the economy, interest rates, earnings, capital flows?

Today was a not-too-subtle reminder that the yen carry trade is still very much in charge of the market, whether day-to-day or moment-to-moment.

For more on the yen carry trade, CLICK HERE.

The S&P 500 has essentially doubled since the BoJ declared war on the yen in late 2011. But, it ran out of steam once USDJPY had recouped 61.8% of its losses since its 1998 highs.

In the world of Fibonacci patterns, the .618 retracement is the most important level of all.  [You needn’t believe in Fibonacci patterns; but, it’s important to know that many investors do…and, trade accordingly.]

For more on Fibonacci levels, CLICK HERE. 

According to the principles of Fibonacci, financial instruments nearly always reverse upon reaching the .618 retracement — generally to at least the .500 and frequently to the .382 or .236 levels.  A drop of that magnitude would have been a huge blow to the trillions of dollars tied to the price of the yen.So, reaching the .618 at 120.11 was an important warning sign for investors.  They began to pay a great deal of attention whenever USDJPY neared 120.11, reasoning that it was an important clue as to whether or not the yen would continue to weaken (USDJPY and stocks would rise) or strengthen (USDJPY and stocks would decline.)

USDJPY deserved all that attention.  It tagged or crossed 120.11 a full 33% of the sessions between early December and mid-May.  But, it managed to remain on an upward trajectory as shown by the red channel below.Stocks followed along, dipping when USDJPY tumbled toward or below 120.11 and rising when it rose above (or, even threatened to.)  Everything went well until early June, when USDJPY finally backtested the huge rising purple channel (the white dot in the above chart.)

USDJPY shed 7.5% over the next two months, while SPX plunged over 12.5% — its biggest correction since the summer of 2011.  It didn’t help that SPX, itself, had completed a huge Butterfly Pattern, reversing at its 1.618 extension; see: The Last Big Butterfly.]

The coincident corrections intensified interest in the yen carry trade.  Even mainstream financial media began discussing the importance of 120 in the USDJPY.  But, for those of us who’ve studied the yen carry trade, the events of August 2015 confirmed what we already knew:

• Want stocks to go up? Push USDJPY higher, preferably above 120.11.
• Want to allow stocks to decline?  Stop propping up USDJPY.

It’s a simple set of rules with remarkably few caveats. It nearly always works.  The trick, of course, is anticipating which way USDJPY is going and, when it’s about to reverse.

Following the Aug 24 plunge, for instance, USDJPY bounced around quite a bit.  It took a few days, but it soon became apparent that it was developing a narrowing triangle — a consolidation pattern.  This made it possible to time long and short positions in the market fairly accurately.

The hourly chart below shows that ES reversed whenever USDJPY tagged the top or bottom of the pattern.  The one notable exception was between Oct 13-20, when oil — following an 11% plunge — rallied almost 6% while USDJPY floundered.

This brings up one of the most important caveats: the yen carry trade isn’t always in charge (just most of the time.)  Crude light oil futures (CL) are frequently used to goose stocks higher.  In fact, today was one of those days.

The chart below shows today’s action in USDJPY and ES minute-by-minute.  Mario Draghi was announcing a continuation of PSPP (the ECB’s version of QE.)  He had nothing new to say, but it was important that the “market” react positively in order to reaffirm the wisdom of the ECB’s actions.

USDJPY spiked the minute Draghi’s press conference started, rising from its overnight low of 119.61 to 120.33 by the time the cash markets opened.  A 0.6% increase in one hour is a big move for currency pairs.  But, the really bullish aspect of the move was that the pair sailed right through 120.11, backtested it, and continued soaring.

The S&P 500 futures were up 13 points from their overnight lows by the time the cash markets opened.  Once SPX was open, it quickly surmounted its 100-day moving average.  It didn’t stop until USDJPY ran into some important resistance — the top of its new, expanded triangle.

At that point, SPX and ES began falling rather precipitously. Having risen 34 points, ES quickly shed 14 of them before CL — which had plunged 2.6% since the market opened — suddenly sprung back to life.  The algos loved this, and quickly forgave USDJPY’s decline.

Of course, by then USDJPY had already started rebounding.  Together, USDJPY and CL drove stocks higher through the close.  SPX regained 12 of the 14 points it had lost and closed with a 33-pt gain (1.66%.)  ES continued even higher after hours, tagging its 200-day moving average for good measure.

If you’ve read this far, I commend you.  You now understand what drives markets better than 99% of all investors.  If you already knew most of this, consider this article a friendly reminder of the degree to which a very small number of people control the so-called markets.  And, they’re not about to give up.

The BoJ and GPIF’s equity holdings are equal to 15% of Japan’s GDP.  Given that every 1% decline in the Nikkei costs them $6.7 billion, they are hopelessly trapped in an failed experiment of their own making.

For more, see: Japan’s Equity Trap

Bottom line: Draghi promises more of the same while refusing to answer the “explain why more inflation is good for citizens” question.

The EURUSD is selling off and might just reach the bottom of the rising channel established several days after the actual PSPP announcement back in March.This might normally be detrimental to stocks… …but for the fact that the USDJPY has been dramatically ramped back to and above the critical .618 Fib at 120.11.  So, ignore the EURUSD and keep an eye on USDJPY.  As usual, it’s all that matters as long as the yen carry trade is alive and well.

If you’re hip to the yen carry trade, you’ve seen this drill before.  But, if you’re like most investors out there, you’ll see that Draghi spoke and the “market” rose and assume that whatever this asswipe said must be good for the “economy.”

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In a maneuver that epitomizes the degree of control central bankers still have over “markets,” the USDJPY landed precisely at the apex of the Pennant Pattern that governed it fpr two month the August 24 meltdown.This, on the heels of Japan’s worst export data in over a year — more proof of Abenomics’ abject failure, and more fodder for the QQE expansion expectations.

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As we discussed yesterday, this week is shaping up as a waiting game.

Given the propping up that’s going on, I’m going to assume that the ECB triangle has already begun.  Any sizable moves will likely come in the opening hour (or even minutes) and the rest of the days will be about backfilling and testing the top/bottom of a narrowing triangle with apex on Thursday.

We certainly saw this over the last 24 hours, when USDJPY and CL conspired to keep SPX from declining during trading hours (dark blue), and the reset occurred overnight (lighter blue.)Last night, however, there was an important twist involving USDJPY.

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USDJPY’s 50-day moving average dropped below its 200-day moving average on Friday.  In technical analysis, this is known as a death cross and is ordinarily considered a rather bearish development.The last time it happened, it precipitated SPX’s second biggest drop of the year.  But, it is remembered more for the BOJ’s reaction than for that or the even bigger plunge that followed.

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In yesterday’s post This is a Test, we wondered how the “markets” would handle USDJPY’s departure from the Pennant Pattern it’s been in since Aug 25.

After declining to last week’s 118.16 target, USDJPY behaved pretty much as expected:

And, note that the 118.26 tag does, in fact, reaffirm the white channel bottom while suggesting that the rapidly rising purple channel might finally be ditched…Whatever big resistance SPX runs into today, USDJPY can overcome it with a rapid spike back to the purple channel bottom.

USDJPY did, in fact, spike back into the purple channel that has kept in on the rise since last December.  The result was a 1.5% gain in SPX, though it had some help from central bankers, horrid economic news, today’s OPEX.For all the excitement, ES ended up at a key overhead resistance — though SPX still has a few points to go.

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Can stocks rally in the face of a rising yen?  We should find out today, as USDJPY reached our second downside target overnight.  As we discussed in Tuesday’s members section:

The BoJ would love to morph USDJPY’s fluctuations into a (less aggressively) rising channel, but that means including some tags on the lower Fib levels such as the red .618.  They’re more likely to chicken out at the rising red TL and purple .236 at 119.27 — especially if SPX is tanking.

Stocks might have tanked, but most of USDJPY’s downside was saved for the after hours, when ES is more easily manipulable. All the same, SPX came within 1.73 of our 1989 target in the members section of Pennant no More.

And, note that the 118.26 tag does, in fact, reaffirm the white channel bottom while suggesting that the rapidly rising purple channel might finally be ditched.continued for members...

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