As we discussed yesterday, this week is shaping up as a waiting game.
Given the propping up that’s going on, I’m going to assume that the ECB triangle has already begun. Any sizable moves will likely come in the opening hour (or even minutes) and the rest of the days will be about backfilling and testing the top/bottom of a narrowing triangle with apex on Thursday.
We certainly saw this over the last 24 hours, when USDJPY and CL conspired to keep SPX from declining during trading hours (dark blue), and the reset occurred overnight (lighter blue.)Last night, however, there was an important twist involving USDJPY.
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