The Midnight Hour

The market is wandering at the moment, trying to establish some tone for the day.  It looks weak at the moment, but in the absence of any fresh news/rumors re the German court ruling and/or QE3, I suspect most traders have already either placed their bets or taken their money off the table.

One of my favorite charts to watch when the market is drifting is the short-term DX — say 15-min.  Currency markets are deeper and less susceptible to retail influences than equities.  I consider them “the grown-up in the room” and believe their tells are often more accurate.

A bounce off that little red dashed TL (and white RSI TL) and I’ll likely re-short.  A break, and equities will probably continue higher.  Here’s the 5-min chart:

Remember, the dollar is still trying to battle back from a deeply oversold condition.  The daily RSI fell out of its channel Friday, but is doing its best to climb back.

More in a few.

UPDATE:  10:45 AM

There’s the break down through the TL — should give stocks a boost.  But, there’s support down below at 79.859-79.901, so I’m not inclined to chase it.  I’m in cash now, and expect to be in cash at the end of the day.

Random thought for the day:  if Treasury, which is joined at the hip to the Fed, knew that QE3 was coming Thursday, would they be dumping their remaining AIG right now?

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The German Constitutional Court is scheduled to deliver their verdict on all things ESM at 0800 CET, 3:00 AM EDT — midnight on my beloved left coast.  Will their love come tumbling down?  We’ll have to wait till the midnight hour.


The Midnight Hour — 6 Comments

  1. There are 4 outcomes until Sep 13.

    German court approval         +  QE3
    German court disapproval     +  QE3
    German count approval        + no QE3
    German court disapproval     + no QE3

    PW, a contest for you.  (No prize)   Which outcome is likely to happen?