The Contest

Just for grins, let’s give away some memberships.  Since we’re likely to have some fireworks this week, I’m curious as to what folks are expecting.   From now through 6pm EDT on the 11th, submit your best guess as to the closing quote for the SPX on September 13th.  One entry only, please, and verified Disqus ID’s only.   Post your entries on Disqus below.

Prizes are as follows:

  • closest to the mark:  one year membership
  • 2nd closest:         semi-annual membership
  • 3rd closest:               quarterly membership

First come, first served.  Once a particular number is posted, no one else may chose it.  I’ll do my best to police these, but it’s up to you to do your homework first.  And, while you’re at it, impress us with the logic behind your reasoning.  I have some monthly membership awards to hand out for overwhelming brilliance, creativity or humor.

If you’re already a member, you may use your award to extend your current membership or give it away to your favorite charity or a close friend.  All winners are responsible for any taxes, etc. on their winnings, entries are void where prohibited, and Fed employees are not permitted to play (unless you contact me first for a little “chat.”)

If Disqus eats your entry, use the “contact me” form in the menu above and I’ll post it for you as soon as I notice it.  Since GoDaddy isn’t fully up to speed yet, you could also copy me at pebblescribe at gmail dot com to be on the safe side.

Post entries below on Disqus, and good luck to all!


UPDATE:  6:45 PM

Here are the entries I’ve received, in chronological order, as of 6:00 PM EDT.



The median is 1416.59, the mean is 1422.60 with a standard deviation is 35.  Our most bullish entry is from FLASHRIP at 1482, and our most bearish bear is Brett at 1345 — meaning a whopping 6.2% tumble in the next 48 hours (ouch!)

Looks like 1411 attracted the most attention, with four entries around it;  1442-1449 had five, as did 1399-1404.  Lots of interesting and well-reasoned responses, and many who didn’t dare tip off the competition as to the method behind their madness.

Thanks to all who entered.  I know well how intimidating it is to put your thoughts out there for everyone to appreciate/ridicule.  It’ll be an interesting next couple of days.

Good luck everyone!



Congratulations to DJ, Kells44 and ewtnewbie, our top three winners.

SPX closed at 1459.99.  DJ entered 1460, so missed it by only a penny.  Kells44 and newb, last contest’s winner, were neck and neck.  A penny higher, and it would have been a tie.  But, Kells nabbed 2nd place by 2 cents with an entry of 1458, leaving newb in a close 3rd.

I’ll post more after I catch my breath.  Thanks, everyone, for entering.  We’ll do this more often.







The Contest — 55 Comments

  1. If I’m wrong about direction then Bernanke did the improbable and issued more QE.  I don’t think he deos, so……


    I might end up getting another one of these but so what, they’re funny.

      • Nice to see you too bud.  My apologies for not dropping in more often, which is pretty dumb since you’re one of my favorite people in the universe.  But I’m not participating anywhere much these days.  Spending most of my time kind of in solitary… you know, thinking things over. 

  2. On the 10th I received a weekly brief from the RBS saying “bet the farm on QE3”, so there must be No QE3, therefore, from a 1440-1445 level we drop to 1416.18 for the 13th, a few more days and we  bottom at 1376.88  then up to elect Obama for a second term with top at  1528.16 around February 26th next year. (Well, no much confident about this 0.16 for the top, but everything else should be ok)

    Thanks Peb for the great job,………  and the prize

  3. formula is Current SPX X (50% QE) X (1 + QE Effect) X (50% German Court decision) X (1+ Euro Effect) X (BB talk effect)

    The result is …… unknown.  But QE effect and Euro effect are priced in.

    For the contest, my guess is 1419.

  4. German Court says ESM  is constitutional however, attaches restrictions.  Ben extends the rate language to 2015, reminds everyone the FED is ready to act in the future however, no QE3 this time!  Market sells off to close at 1399 on the 13th!!!

  5. 1439, since almost everyone is saying when Ben disappoint market will sell off, I will take the other side and say market rallies no matter what, remember the Barron’s cover, Bulls are INVINCIBLE!!!

  6. Since Jim took 1404, I’ll go 1403.  Fib line, trendline, a little horizontal support from that interminable consolidation period of the last few weeks.

  7. I’d say BB disappoints, but only in the sense that he’s say something in Oct. So 1426 just to pick a random number that’s not SPX of 0

  8. Alright, I’ll throw my hat in the ring and say 1466.97 to complete a .88 retrace of the top going all the way back to 10/12/07.  I’m not a big fan of the .88, always hung my hat on the .78, but obviously that’s long gone.  And with it went most of my strategy for the rest of the year.  But what the heck, I’ll give the .88 a shot since I believe this a long term top we’re building.  GLTA.

  9. 1462–court says “go for it” and we spike.  That will be the top or near top, and then we collapse from there.  GLTA.