Fitch downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, adding to stocks’ overnight decline.
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Tag: USDJPY
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Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2023
With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately.
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BoJ: Just Kidding
It’s a big week for the market as many of the most important stocks are reporting amidst ongoing questions about the strength of the economy.
This morning, however, it’s all about the BoJ again. After effectively raising interest rates, they’ve jumped into the market to make sure interest rates don’t actually rise – boosting the USDJPY and, as a result, equity futures.
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Powell Doesn’t Disappoint
He could have gone full hawk, but he didn’t. Even in the face of economic data (that the rest of us can now see) which was uniformly positive and a coming bump in inflation, Powell chose the route that best supported stocks. ES bounced at its SMA10 and is surging toward its .886 Fib retracement.
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FOMC Day: Jul 26, 2023
Equities have ramped almost 12% since the last Fed meeting – ignoring the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period of time. Given the oil market’s recent breakout and the obvious base effect on inflation, we see a good chance of Powell presenting a more hawkish stance than the overbought market is prepared for…
…raising the prospect of spike in the 10Y to 4.76% by mid-August. One of the few developments that could prevent it: a collapse in oil/gas prices.continued for members… (more…)
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Forcing Their Hand
The recent breakout in oil/gas prices has now inspired a breakout in the 10Y.
It’s an important headwind for the Fed, which had relied on falling energy prices to keep inflation and interest rates at an acceptable level.continued for members… (more…)
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Inflation Not Done
We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning.
The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – and for the next several months.continued for members… (more…)
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Charts I’m Watching: Jul 21, 2023
Just saw that the great Tony Bennett passed early this morning. It was always a thrill to see him perform. He was one of the last great ones, and will be missed.
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Futures are leaking higher on this OPEX Friday following SPX’s bounce off its .786 Fib.
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Update on Currencies: Jul 18, 2023
EURUSD tagged our 1.1273 target overnight. It came a little earlier than expected, but it’s a significant development given the pair’s correlation with stocks.
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