pebblewriter

Tag: SPX

  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 12, 2012

    In widespread anticipation of the Fed broadening its accommodative stance, the dollar poked down through its proposed (white) channel overnight.

    While the EURUSD is back-testing its recently broken rising channel.

    With expectations high that the Fed and Congress (some of you might have heard recent talk about the so-called “fiscal cliff”) will deliver, the cost of any disappointment could be very high indeed.

    The Fed is expected to replace the upcoming expiration of Operation Twist with new bond purchases, bringing the monthly total to $85 billion (including MBS.)  Whether QE was worthwhile or not is a question for future history books.

    But, there’s no question that each round has resulted in diminishing returns for the market — witness QE3’s paltry 40-pt gain on SPX.  Unfortunately for the Fed, they were up against a worthy foe — a well-established Bat Pattern that snuffed out the rally as we expected [see: The World According to Ben.]

    After the subsequent 130-pt decline, SPX is almost back to its pre-QE3 price level. I find it interesting that, yesterday, 60-min RSI tagged the top of the channel line formed from that brief rally.  It’s all the more interesting that it did so in the form of a back test of the channel that contained the rally from 1343 — and failed to break the previous (Nov 2) high of 1434.27.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 10, 2012

    The market continues to walk a tightrope between another leg up and a very significant tumble.  We’ve been here many times before in the past year, and it isn’t getting any more fun.  To recap…

    We remain short from 1423 on Dec 3 [see: Without a Net].  This was target A established in our Oct 26 forecast [see: A New Old Analog] and can be seen in the original chart below.

    Note that 1423 was very close to the .618 retracement (1424.41 on the white grid below) of the 1474 – 1343 decline.  Prices reversed there as we expected, shedding 25 points to 1398 in its first wave down (in line with our forecast of 1400.)

    That .618 retracement of the 1474-1343 wave down portends one of three outcomes:

    1. the bearish case:  a corrective wave 2 which sets up a more powerful wave 3 down
    2. the bullish case:  the first of a series of impulsive waves to new highs
    3. the middle case: the “A” subwave in an A-B-C corrective wave that points higher before wave 3 down.

    The first case is pretty clear cut, and has been detailed in prior posts.

    The third is also pretty clear, as the .618 retracement to 1423 could be merely a Point B in a Gartley Pattern to the .786 (1446) or Bat Pattern to the .886 (1459.)

    If SPX blows through 1425, I’m fully prepared to switch sides and take a stab at re-shorting at those higher levels.

    The big imponderable is case #2.  The top question I’ve received over the past week is whether a fiscal cliff deal would result in such a move.  It’s pretty easy to imagine that sort of a market reaction, even though — like last year’s debt ceiling compromise — it would hardly be justified.

    One thing is indisputable:  deal or no deal, we’ll get higher taxes and lower government spending.  Any combination of the two will negatively impact GDP.   By the same token, though, any deal would almost certainly mean a bump in prices.

    UPDATE:  11:50 AM

    Last Friday, SPX came within 48 cents of retracing .886 (1420.82) of its 1423.73-1398.23 decline.  This morning, it sealed the deal, reaching 1421.64 and completing the Bat Pattern.

    In the process, though, it tagged the neckline of the potential Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern we discussed Friday.   The pattern, if it plays out, targets 1507ish.  For the pattern to play out, we’d (at least) want to see a close above the shoulder line at 1420.80.

    But, it’s important to point out that not every IH&S pattern plays out.   Sometimes, it’s just market makers trying to shake things up a little bit.  Here’s one that didn’t play out last year, for example.

    Suppose we went up and tagged the actual .618 at 1424.41 for instance.  It’d be easy to see it as the bullish case playing out, what with a higher high and all.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Last Call: Dec 07, 2012

    Feeling pretty jazzed, as things should finally get underway today.  Today’s theme music from the late jazz great Dave Brubeck, the last of his kind.  This track features Brubeck, Paul Desmond, Eugene Wright and Joe Morello doing what they did best — laying down some hot licks.

     

    ORIGINAL POST:   9:15 AM

    Though the jobs numbers will give a boost to the market this morning, it shouldn’t be enough to break to new highs.  SPX should come within a few points of completing an inverted H&S pattern, but ultimately fail near the .786 or, more likely, a little Bat Pattern at the .886 (1420.82)

    For anyone who missed the opportunity to go short when SPX nailed our upside target [see: At Last] on Monday, this could be your last chance.

    The rally from 1343 has felt strong, but it’s no more than a back test of a broken channel. The next major move should be much lower.

    As always, stops are advised in the event the pattern completes.  Though this analog has worked beautifully since last April, they all fail eventually.

    BTW, the jobs numbers from BLS weren’t quite as fab as they would have us think (I know — I’m shocked, too.)  In the last four years, those over 55 have scored decent job growth.  Younger workers and those in their earnings prime — not so much.  From Zerohedge:

    UPDATE:  11:45 AM

    The dollar has been a veritable billboard for harmonics lately.  It completed a Bat Pattern back on Sep 14 (red pattern), retracing .886 of its rally from February to July.  Since then, it’s retraced 50% of the drop (not shown, but a Bat Pattern from Aug 28 channel mid-line break.)

    It then proceeded to complete a Crab Pattern (in yellow), reversing at just beyond the 1.618 of 81.138 in mid-November.  Since then, DX formed a nice falling wedge that saw it complete a Gartley Pattern on the 5th (in white.)

    Some might see the purple and red patterns as having further downside potential.  The red Bat could go on to form a Crab down at 74.335 (which would line up nicely with the purple .886 at 74.158.  If our analog/forecast busts, I’d say that’s a good possibility.

    But, it’s hard to ignore the recently broken channel for EURUSD.

    UPDATE:  1:20 PM

    Stocks reversed nicely from this morning’s high, which came within  48 cents of our 1420.82 target — good enough for government work.

    Lots of excitement about financials the past couple of days.  It was certainly one of the hot sectors today, offsetting generally poor results from services and, of course, AAPL.  When it comes to significant moves, financials often lead the broader markets.

    So, in a period when we’re looking for a sizable sell-off, it would be helpful to have the financials on board.  Fortunately for our forecast, they are only one good pop away from being ready.

    For more, check out today’s Update on Financials.

  • Without a Net

    The toughest moments for those of us who chart publicly are those right after calling a significant top or bottom.  There are some instances when pretty much everyone and their mother can see a turn coming.  Other times, it feels like you’re sailing through the air, frantically searching for the catcher and hoping he hasn’t chosen this moment to take an unannounced coffee break.

    The first wave down after any significant top is just plain fun.  It worked!  Sit back, bask in the glory, etc.  Then comes the corrective wave.  Heart-in-throat time.  You know it’s going to retrace some of that first wave down, but how much?  Most chartists develop sweaty palms around 61.8%.  Your stomach starts churning at 78.6%.  At 88.6%, time for your favorite vice.  And, God help us if it’s a double top.

    Following an analog is generally the worst.  Virtually no one else sees it coming, and there is a long list of reasons you’re probably wrong.  Taking a tour around the net last night, that certainly seems to be the case now.  The euro is soaring, the dollar is tanking, and the market has spurted 80 points in two weeks — only 50 points from a five-year high.

    It’s made even worse if the first wave down didn’t break out/down of whatever chart pattern it was in.  Yesterday’s reversal was impressive — going from up almost 8 points to down 8.But, we never quite reached my 1424.41 target — coming up .68 short — not to mention the Inverted H&S target.

    And, we haven’t yet broken down from the rising wedge. A re-test of the high is officially on the table until that happens — hence the importance of using stops.

    Once the wedge is broken, the next support is usually either an important Fib level or a morphing of the wedge into a channel.  In this case, we have strong horizontal and Fib support at 1400.  If we convert the wedge to a channel, it has a mid-line currently around 1402 and a channel bottom around 1390.

    A rising channel would be bullish, of course.  And, I haven’t a bullish bone in my body right now.  We draw it, though, because we have to try to get inside the head of all the bulls out there and figure out where they’re likely to jump in and buy.  Channel mid-lines and bottoms, as well as important Fib levels, definitely qualify.

    UPDATE:  11:35 AM

    Nice reversal off this morning’s highs again, turning a 4-pt gain into a 4.5-pt loss where SPX bounced off the 10-day SMA (in red below, currently 1405.37.)  The SMA 20 (white) is down around 1392 and, like the 50 (blue, 1419), is due to continue falling. Fifty sessions ago was Sep 20, two sessions post the Sep 14 high of 1474.  So, all else being equal, the SMA 50 should start coming down as those higher components to the moving average roll off.

    The 200-day moving average (thicker red) is down at 1385, so it’ll be a while before the 50/200 cross.  And, we are officially back below the 100-day (thicker yellow) at 1410.59.  Look for the 50/100 cross in the next few days.

    The next battles involving moving averages will likely come at 1380, involving the SMA 200 and the SMA 20 at the intersection of the bottom of the rising white channel and the top of the falling red channel.  The 50% retracement of the 1343 to 1423 rally is at 1383.54, which intersects with both channels on Thursday.

    So, we’ll keep an eye out for a significant bounce Thursday at 1383ish.  Remember, the .786 of the 1576 – 666 crash is right there at 1381.50.  And, bulls will want to limit this “correction’s” downside to the next Fib level lower — on the way to new highs, of course.

    The EURUSD, in the meantime, has reached Sunday’s upside target of the .886 at 1.3084 and has completed a fairly decent looking rising wedge of its own.

    UPDATE:  12:10 PM

    The dollar has reached the bottom of the white channel we charted Sunday [see: DX Update], just beyond a .618 retrace of the move up from 78.725.  It appears to be basing for a move higher.

    I’m expecting a 5% move by around the end of the year.   What does that mean for stocks?

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  • Zweig Breadth Thrust

    Came close Friday, but didn’t happen.  A ZBT requires a move from .40 to .60 in 10 sessions or less.  Here’s a successful signal from Sep 2011:

    And, here’s where we ended up Friday — the 10th session from the .40 cross:

    Ditto for NYSE & DJIA too, BTW.

  • Charts I’m Watching: Nov 26, 2012

    MEMBERSHIP NOTE:  I have set up a Twitter Account (@pebblewriter). I will endeavor to tweet important intra-day alerts within a few minutes of posting them in these pages.  I believe you can arrange to be notified of any updates by text or email.  Alerts will contain a link that directs followers to the pertinent post.  I’m new to this, so bear with me as I get the hang of it.

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    Last, as posted a few days ago, monthly memberships have been discontinued.  Monthly members who convert to Annual Membership are eligible for a rebate of their most recent monthly payment.  New pricing for all membership categories goes into effect at the end of the month.

     

    ORIGINAL POST:  9:20 AM

    Here’s where we left off Friday.  I’m not thrilled with the idea of adjusting channel lines to fit with an overshoot of a target.  Looks a bit hinky on the 60-min chart…

    …even if it fits fine on the daily.

    But, here’s the chart that really convinced me to stay short (from 1404, 10:30 EST in members’ section) over the weekend, even though SPX slightly exceeded my original stop of 1407.  Remember, this is a short-term trade only.  Our core position remains long.

    The RSI ran into the upper bound of a well-formed channel (yellow) at the end of the day.  So, it’s either break-out or break-down time – regardless of what price was saying.

    And, in the 60-min time frame…

    Meanwhile, the dollar was breaking out of a week-old 60-min RSI channel and appears to be setting up for a back-test of the broken channel and recently broken moving averages (10-day = 80.88, 20 = 80.78, 200 = 80.9).

    UPDATE:  11:30 AM

    SPX broke down through the important 1400 price level, and is likely on its way to completing a proper B-wave for this corrective wave on its way higher.  Friday, I updated the primary forecast to reflect a significant sell-off into the middle of the week, followed by a strong recovery.

    This scenario is in play if we reach the low 1380s in the next day or two — something that seemed unlikely on Friday, but would seem less so if we traded down through the SMA 200.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Nov 23, 2012

    ORIGINAL POST 9:25 AM

    SPX seems intent on reaching the next Fib level — the .618 of the 1433-1343 plunge at 1398.99 — before embarking on a significant B wave lower.

    But, the top of the new purple channel that’s been guiding us lower since mid-September is up above at 1401-1403, so there’s every chance in the world that SPX will stretch to reach it.  Plus, 1400 is just too tempting a target.   Reversals are attracted to round numbers like moths to a flame.

    The neckline of the H&S that completed back on the 7th is up at 1406ish and would mean a break out of the channel, so I’ll make that a secondary target and would look for a quick retreat back into the channel.  Since the market’s aim here is to give the “appearance” of setting up a Bat Pattern that targets the .886 at 1459.56, a reversal anywhere between the .larger pattern’s .382 at 1393 and .500 at 1408 would suffice.

    SPX just smacked into a bunch of channel lines in this area, and we should see a strong reaction before moving much higher.  But, as we discussed Monday, the general trend remains higher to our forecast target.  Any shorting here would be a short-term trade in conjunction with a long core position.

    DX is closing in on the highest of our proposed Point C’s posted on Monday — the .382 of the 78.725 to 81.515 run since the Sep 14 low.  This is also a .618 of the more recent 79.72-81.515 spurt and a channel line, so a reversal should be imminent.  Remember, the overall trend is higher into the end of the year.

    We’re looking for either a B subwave higher in the C leg (or the main B leg higher itself) of an A-B-C move lower to find a Point C for the Bat Pattern completion up at 83.06 to 83.62.  It could be significant, but it’s a counter-wave in a counter-wave, so don’t get too hung up on nailing it precisely.

    The EURUSD is closing in on the .618 retracement of its recent drop from 1.3138 to 1.2660 — as well as an important channel line.  Look for a reversal around 1.2956 to coincide with SPX’s channel tag discussed above.

    UPDATE:  10:30 AM

    SPX just reached the upper bound of the channel discussed above.  I’m trying a short position here at 1404, with stops around 1407.  Again, general trend remains higher. Targets and charts in a moment.

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  • Harmonics Are Your Friend

    It seems longer than seven weeks since we led with this chart on Sep 14 [see: The World According to Ben.]   QE3, the ECB’s latest stick save and the German Constitutional Court’s pro-ESM decision had all just been announced.  According to just about everyone, stocks were about to explode higher.

    To me, it was a long-awaited shorting opportunity.

    Meanwhile, SPX is nearing our 1472 target. I will ease some stops into the equation as we approach it, as I’d like to remain long for as long as possible.  This is a 35 point gain since we went long yesterday at 1437 with the Fed’s announcement.

    And, less than an hour later…

    Going ahead and pull the plug on my longs here at 1474.  The 5-min, 15-min and 60-min charts are all showing negative divergence.  I’ll place stops at 1475 or so, trailing lower as need be, just in case it makes another run higher.

    It wasn’t rocket science — just a big Bat Pattern that had finally completed.  Those who simply hung on to that short position scored 86 points for a nice 5.8% gain.  For buy and hold types, it’s been a great trade that is nearing an end.

    For us swing traders, it’s been a wild ride with (much) higher returns [Results] from anticipating the swings that had most analysts scratching their heads.  Yet, most of the swings were signaled by Harmonic Patterns and/or chart patterns that usually agreed.

    We were able, for instance, to short again just ahead of yesterday’s plunge — earning me some sympathetic private messages from well-meaning friends [“Are you sure, man?  This one seems kinda out there, especially without any election results yet.”  B.B.]

    This is essentially the same chart as above — seven weeks later.  We’re coming up on the next Fib level lower — the .786 retracement of the 1576 to 666 crash.  And, it just so happens that we’re nearing the SMA 200 at 1380.80.

    Not shown on this chart, there’s also a Crab Pattern completion at 1384.13, not to mention the .786 of the 1354 to 1474 run at 1380.30.  So, as the rest of the investing world is jumping on the bearish bandwagon, harmonics are signaling another important and unexpected turn.

    *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 1, 2012

    ORIGINAL POST:  9:40 AM

    We posted this chart early Friday morning [see: CIW Sep 28]:

    SPX is selling off this morning, but should find support at the purple channel bottom around 1435-1436 and rebound…  If the channel does hold, preferably at the .786 or .886 of the pink pattern, look for the Gartley Pattern we discussed yesterday to complete at 1456.21.  Why?  Yesterday’s high was a perfect Fib .618 retracement of the 1463.20 to 1430.53 drop.

    In fact, SPX reversed at 1435.60 minutes later, starting up right at our Point C.  That left the Gartley Pattern completion at 1456.2 (Point D) as our next target.  Don’t look now, but it’s not all that far away.

    SPX just hit our interim target of 1450 — the upper bound of the channel it’s been in (and fell out of) for the past several days.  This also represents one of the larger red channel lines and is the Sep 27 top, so we should get a reaction here.

    But, we will likely go higher.  Why?

    Note that on the 27th, we reversed at the .618 retracement of the 1463 – 1430 drop.  This set up a potential Gartley Pattern at 1456 or Bat Pattern at 1459.

    In the midst of that range is the .618 of the larger 1474 to 1430 drop at 1457.71. And, the top of the red channel is currently at, drum roll please, 1457.

    In other words, we should get a decent downturn somewhere in the 1456-1459 area — with 1457 being my favored target. We remain long from 1437, but I plan on taking profits and playing the downturn at that point.  I’ll look for a shift in momentum first.

    More in a few…

    UPDATE:  10:10 AM

    That’s close enough for me.  Going short here at 1457, with stops at 1460.

    We could see one last spurt and tag 1459 or so, but I’d rather bank the 20 points we’ve earned in the past week and play the reaction.

    continued for subscribers…

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 21, 2012

    It appears my idea to close out longs because the bounce was done at yesterday’s close was premature dead wrong.  SPX looks like it’ll break out of the little channel on the opening bell.

    We might get a back test as in the past, but it’s difficult to say for sure.  Today is OPEX, so the safe play for traders is to close any shorts on the open and play along on the upside.

    UPDATE:  9:40 AM

    The market broke out of the channel we were watching.  As I mentioned yesterday afternoon, the upper bound is parallel to that of a similar pattern from earlier in the month.  When that TL was broken, SPX tacked on 30 points.  I don’t think we’re looking at the same thing here, but I can’t be sure.


    OPEX warps everything.  If we can drop back into the channel instead of just to its upper bound, then I chased after the upside for nothing.  But, watch for a back test right around 1463.

    I still believe we’ll get more of a reaction off of all those key Fib levels we just reached — chiefly among them the .886 retracement of 1576-666 at 1472.  Twenty-four points just doesn’t seem enough after an 808-pt climb.  On the other hand, after that long/strong a rally, it’s not so easy for the market to stop on a dime — especially after the supposedly game-changing QE3.

    The RSI picture shows a clear break out on the 15-min chart.  Normally, we will get  a back-test of the broken TL, which will also affect prices.  As the chart below shows, we broke through the initial white channel line and are bumping up against a higher, parallel one.

    Note that we’re also testing — for a third time — the yellow channel line (the thin yellow line rising through the middle of the chart.)

    If these levels can hold — and, by the way, they represent no special Fib level — then this morning’s rally will be contained at a 65% retracement of the 1474-1449 drop.  Given that it’s OPEX,  we could bump along the red channel line until EOD, at which point we’d be close enough to tag the .786 (small purple grid) at 1469.28 — call it 1470 (i.e. water torture for any remaining put holders, but no reward for the call holders.)

    But this would definitely be a breakout of the little white channel.  Can we do that without signalling higher prices to come?  The white channel is currently at 1467 — only a couple points below the .786. Is it worth playing the breakout for 2 points?

    Probably not.  But a breakout is a breakout.  And, there’s no guarantee SPX will continue to respect the big yellow channel.  If the rally extends into Monday, the .886 intersects the yellow channel line at 1471.71 — a relatively deep retracement for a corrective wave.

    Bottom line, I’ll likely put on more short-term longs if we break out convincingly above the small white channel — currently around 1467.  But, if we do, I’ll probably look to close out before the end of the day.  I just don’t have that much confidence in breaking the yellow channel line.

    If we reverse off the channel line instead, then we should at least head down to test the just-broken white channel line at 1463, or the bottom of a larger rising wedge (chart below, in yellow) at 1460-1461.

    A break there would open up the possibility of a trip back to the white channel bottom and our 1444 interim goal.

    I remain short, but will dump that position if we break above the top white channel line/yellow rising wedge/yellow channel line.  I chased after a few calls this morning (mostly as a hedge) for nothing, as the market hasn’t been able to seal the deal.  Those are on the chopping block unless we can move convincingly through the resistance mentioned above.

    UPDATE:  3:55 PM

    Market finally shaking loose.  VIX argues for lower prices ahead.