Charts I’m Watching: Dec 12, 2012

In widespread anticipation of the Fed broadening its accommodative stance, the dollar poked down through its proposed (white) channel overnight.

While the EURUSD is back-testing its recently broken rising channel.

With expectations high that the Fed and Congress (some of you might have heard recent talk about the so-called “fiscal cliff”) will deliver, the cost of any disappointment could be very high indeed.

The Fed is expected to replace the upcoming expiration of Operation Twist with new bond purchases, bringing the monthly total to $85 billion (including MBS.)  Whether QE was worthwhile or not is a question for future history books.

But, there’s no question that each round has resulted in diminishing returns for the market — witness QE3’s paltry 40-pt gain on SPX.  Unfortunately for the Fed, they were up against a worthy foe — a well-established Bat Pattern that snuffed out the rally as we expected [see: The World According to Ben.]

After the subsequent 130-pt decline, SPX is almost back to its pre-QE3 price level. I find it interesting that, yesterday, 60-min RSI tagged the top of the channel line formed from that brief rally.  It’s all the more interesting that it did so in the form of a back test of the channel that contained the rally from 1343 — and failed to break the previous (Nov 2) high of 1434.27.

continued for members


Sorry, this content is for members only.

Click here to get access.


Already a member? Login below

Remember me (for 2 weeks)

Forgot Password