Last Call: Dec 07, 2012

Feeling pretty jazzed, as things should finally get underway today.  Today’s theme music from the late jazz great Dave Brubeck, the last of his kind.  This track features Brubeck, Paul Desmond, Eugene Wright and Joe Morello doing what they did best — laying down some hot licks.



Though the jobs numbers will give a boost to the market this morning, it shouldn’t be enough to break to new highs.  SPX should come within a few points of completing an inverted H&S pattern, but ultimately fail near the .786 or, more likely, a little Bat Pattern at the .886 (1420.82)

For anyone who missed the opportunity to go short when SPX nailed our upside target [see: At Last] on Monday, this could be your last chance.

The rally from 1343 has felt strong, but it’s no more than a back test of a broken channel. The next major move should be much lower.

As always, stops are advised in the event the pattern completes.  Though this analog has worked beautifully since last April, they all fail eventually.

BTW, the jobs numbers from BLS weren’t quite as fab as they would have us think (I know — I’m shocked, too.)  In the last four years, those over 55 have scored decent job growth.  Younger workers and those in their earnings prime — not so much.  From Zerohedge:

UPDATE:  11:45 AM

The dollar has been a veritable billboard for harmonics lately.  It completed a Bat Pattern back on Sep 14 (red pattern), retracing .886 of its rally from February to July.  Since then, it’s retraced 50% of the drop (not shown, but a Bat Pattern from Aug 28 channel mid-line break.)

It then proceeded to complete a Crab Pattern (in yellow), reversing at just beyond the 1.618 of 81.138 in mid-November.  Since then, DX formed a nice falling wedge that saw it complete a Gartley Pattern on the 5th (in white.)

Some might see the purple and red patterns as having further downside potential.  The red Bat could go on to form a Crab down at 74.335 (which would line up nicely with the purple .886 at 74.158.  If our analog/forecast busts, I’d say that’s a good possibility.

But, it’s hard to ignore the recently broken channel for EURUSD.

UPDATE:  1:20 PM

Stocks reversed nicely from this morning’s high, which came within  48 cents of our 1420.82 target — good enough for government work.

Lots of excitement about financials the past couple of days.  It was certainly one of the hot sectors today, offsetting generally poor results from services and, of course, AAPL.  When it comes to significant moves, financials often lead the broader markets.

So, in a period when we’re looking for a sizable sell-off, it would be helpful to have the financials on board.  Fortunately for our forecast, they are only one good pop away from being ready.

For more, check out today’s Update on Financials.


Last Call: Dec 07, 2012 — 4 Comments

  1. The fist chart you ploted out a potential Inverse H&S forming.Don’t these usually resolve up?