Apparently, investors aren’t quite as sanguine about inflation as it seemed. After slightly overshooting our upside target from February, SPX plunged 4.32% – about $1.5 trillion in market cap. Trillion-and-a-half here, trillion-and-a-half there, pretty soon you’re talking real money. It was the worst day in the markets since March 2020 and one of the worst … continue reading →
Tag Archives: interest rates
August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly on light volume algo action in advance of tomorrow’s CPI data. continued for members… … continue reading →
The algos were back at it yesterday, pumping stocks higher via VIX and the USDJPY. Note that VIX dropped back to the TL which it broke below in August. This brought ES within striking distance of a backtest of its latest H&S Pattern just in time for next week’s CPI data to drop.continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity. continued for members… … continue reading →
Breakouts from well-established falling channels are usually followed by backtests of that channel. This is how bulls put all that nasty bearishness behind them, freeing stocks for another leg up. Except, it doesn’t always turn out that way. Sure, ES nailed our backtest target. But will it follow through with a respectable bounce? continued for … continue reading →
Futures are off about 0.5% this morning as the economic data was somewhat better than expected. It’s an important juncture for the market, as USDJPY has reached our 139.43 target at the same time that ES is approaching our 3902 backtest target. continued for members… … continue reading →
Markets finally got the message. Or, maybe Powell finally put it plainly enough: there will be more pain before the Fed eases. continued for members… … continue reading →
Powell threw cold water on the market’s optimistic outlook this morning, suggesting that aggressive tightening will continue. continuing for members… … continue reading →
Futures are flat after enjoying a modest overnight ramp. continued for members… … continue reading →