This is all it took to get FOMC members to walk back Bullard’s hawkish comments. Note the tiny channel breakdown. Terrifying enough to keep QE going and to respond to the worst inflation in 40 years with a mere 25 bps rate hike a month from now? Apparently.
How else can you explain this insanity?
If it’s too hard to see the Fed Funds rate on the above chart, here’s a close up.
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January headline CPI reached 7.5%, a new 40-yr high, sending the 10Y up over 2% for the first time since August 2019 when CPI registered 1.75%. As has been the trend since November, oil/gas no longer leads the way.
Inflation has become widespread, higher than the Fed’s so-called 2% target in every category except, ironically, medical services. Energy was the only category showing a negative MoM change.
Futures are off over 40 points so far. If not for the ramp job of the last few days, ES would be back below its 200-DMA. It’s the markets version of raising prices so you can advertise a huge sale.
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Futures are off modestly as we approach the open. Aside from a few formerly shiny objects…
…all eyes are on Thursday’s CPI.
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Futures are up slightly as we approach the open – an extension of the bounce off recent lows.
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Futures are off sharply overnight on Facebook’s sensational plunge.
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COMP’s breakdown caught a lot of people by surprise (though thankfully, not everybody.) Likewise, its bounce has turned more than a few heads. As it approaches a backtest of its channel line and SMA200, what can we expect? And what does it mean for the broader market?
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SPX has been threatening to break back above its 200-day moving average ever since Jan 23. Despite numerous vigorous attempts, it remains below it, signalling more downside ahead.
It’s time for the bears to put up or shut up.
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Futures have been all over the map, but ES’ flag pattern is still intact. All of our targets remain unchanged. Look out below.
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After Monday’s tumble, will Powell have the guts to stick to his inflation-fighting guns? Futures are up about 1.5%, but are still just shy of the 200-day moving average.
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ES tagged our next downside target this morning…
…tagging the 4319 target we posted back on Jan 3 [see: De Facto Shutdown.]
The only question now is whether stocks will get the big bounce they usually do after a 10% correction or whether they’ve come undone. In other words, I have this 1969 Guess Who classic on a loop this morning. The lyrics seemed especially apt for today’s equities market.
She’s come undone
She found a mountain that was far too high
And when she found out she couldn’t fly
It was too late
From the ain’t it cool department…Burton Cummings rocks a pretty convincing Seattle grunge look 50 years ahead of the crowd, plays a mean jazz flute (inspiring the future Ron Burgundy?) and scats in a frickin’ rock song.
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