Futures are up slightly on as investors look ahead to tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
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Tag: FOMC
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Powell Speaks
Futures have bounced back from overnight lows in advance of Jay Powell’s comments at 12pm ET at the Economic Club of NY.
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Update on USDJPY: Sep 29, 2023
We’ve been accurately forecasting USDJPY for over 12 years, starting with recognition of a falling wedge that yielded a huge breakout in 2011 [see: USDJPY – How Low Can it Go?] and evolving to an understanding of the importance of the Yen Carry Trade.
The Japanese economy is a hot mess, but the chart patterns have been fairly easy to discern. When there’s any doubt, remember two principles:
(1) The BoJ will do whatever it takes to keep stocks on the rise.
(2) Ignore any other principles.So, when a channel breakout occurred in March 2021 [see: USDJPY’s Turn] in the wake of the 35% Covid crash, we were right on top of it.
Likewise, we could see the ginormous Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern coming from a mile away. USDJPY zipped up through the “resistance” and has tagged every target we’ve set for it. It has further to go, though the path should continue to confound everyone but chartists.
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FOMC Decision Day: Sep 20, 2023
Futures are up moderately in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
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Charts I’m Watching: Sep 18, 2023
Futures are off slightly as we approach the open, with an FOMC rate decision and plenty of economic data in the week ahead.
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CPI Tops Estimates: Sep 13, 2023
August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy.
Futures are flat ahead of the open…
…with VIX making lower lows on algo trading. 
Rising inflation, driven largely by YoY comps for energy prices, should make a Fed pause less likely.
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Charts I’m Watching: Sep 12, 2023
Futures gave back most of yesterday’s gains overnight as the August CPI print approaches.
Our gas price model suggests headline CPI is due for a significant increase.
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Charts I’m Watching: Sep 11, 2023
Futures are up about 0.50% percent on a rebound in tech shares.
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Charts I’m Watching: Sep 5, 2023
Futures are off moderately this morning on low holiday volume.
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