Remember the post from last July [see: Time to Sell Your Home?] regarding the effect of rising interest rates on housing prices? With mortgage rates at 2.60% at the time, we did some simple calculations to show the impact of an increase in rates to as high as 6%. A $1 million house with a … continue reading →
Tag Archives: FOMC
PPI dropped just a bit from last month, registering 10.8% YoY (unadjusted) for May versus 10.9% for April and 11.5% for March. The MoM tally was +0.8% for May versus 0.4% for April. The very slight drop in the YoY data is unlikely to assuage the Fed’s fears about inflation being out of control. But, … continue reading →
ES dropped over 100 points overnight to tag our 3802 target. The other perhaps more significant target to be tagged is the 10Y. It topped our 3.248 target and is currently trading at 3.28.Our analog continues to perform beautifully. continued for members… … continue reading →
CPI soared to a new 40-year high: 8.6% YoY and 1.0% MoM. Core also exceeded consensus, coming in at 6.0%. Futures are not amused, as this takes anything less than a 50 bps rate hike next week off the table. A 75 bps hike is suddenly a real possibility. Needless to say, our analog remains … continue reading →
It’s a big week for economic data, with earnings and outlook announcements already setting a bearish tone. First up this morning is April new home sales, which came in at 591k units – a 16.6% drop from March and a 32.9% plunge from April 2021. It barely beat the 2020 pandemic lows. As everyone now … continue reading →
Futures are up sharply following Friday’s 140-point reversal which finally saw SPX/ES reach the -20% mark. As we discussed last week, the market should surprise many this week. continued for members… … continue reading →
Friday the 13th – an inauspicious day to break a new analog! With SPX nailing our downside target and futures breaking out of the falling wedge pattern yesterday, we’re off to the races. These things don’t always work out. But, when they do, it can be a career-making trading opportunity. The one which worked out … continue reading →
Remember that scene in Cool Hand Luke where Paul Newman mouths off to the Captain after a failed escape attempt? He doesn’t initially appreciate the gravity of his situation. He is soon reminded. That’s what yesterday’s post-Fed presser felt like. Powell was trying to convey the sense that the Fed means business. It is going … continue reading →
Today’s FOMC meeting is one of the most anticipated and consequential in years. It’s difficult to overstate its importance in terms of economic impact and, perhaps more importantly, Fed credibility. Yes, we care about whether the Fed hikes 50 or 75 basis points – though either is unlikely to put a dent in inflation. The … continue reading →
Futures came roaring back into the falling white channel yesterday, revealing what many know but few say out loud: the market is broken. When expectations of a 1% quarterly rise in GDP yield, instead, a 1.4% decline, stocks should decline. Plain and simple. The old “bad news is good news” argument doesn’t work any more … continue reading →