Housing starts missed again this morning, underscoring the NAHB’s assessment that the housing industry is in a recession. Starts came in 100K below consensus and 9.5% below June’s report. Futures, still laser focused on OPEX, didn’t budge. The NAHB posted the 8th monthly decline in a row yesterday, reporting the lowest reading since May 2020. … continue reading →
Tag Archives: FOMC
Annual headline PPI eased slightly in July, rising 9.8% versus June’s 11.1% increase. Monthly headline actually fell 0.5%, due largely to drops in oil prices. Core PPI remained elevated at 5.8% annually and 0.2% monthly. As with CPI, the question remains whether inflation is rolling over or merely pausing. With OPEX approaching, algos can’t be … continue reading →
Futures ripped higher on the news that July CPI came in 0.2% lower than expected on both the monthly and annual headline figures: 0.0% and 8.5%. Core rose 0.3% and 5.9% – still well above the Fed’s so-called 2% target. Much has been made of the price drop seen in oil and gas since mid-June. … continue reading →
The VIX nonsense continues, ramping futures back above the SMA100 with the help of Jim Bullard, Fed president and occasional CNBC host, who insists there is no recession – just like he insisted inflation wouldn’t be a problem. Whether there is or not, the market will never reflect one as long as this kind of … continue reading →
Futures have ramped almost 1% overnight – a common occurrence lately, especially in advance of a Fed decision. Even the durable goods orders beat (a miss if you’re looking for the Fed to slow their rate hikes) did nothing to thwart the algo-driven meltup. continued for members… … continue reading →
Can VIX be contained for another few days? If you want to know what’s going to happen in the market this week, that’s the critical question. As weak earnings reports and economic data have dribbled out over the past week, VIX has tested its 200-day moving average almost every day. Every time it comes close, … continue reading →
Between an FOMC meeting, consumer confidence, GDP, durable goods, PCE, consumer sentiment, new home sales and a slew of important earnings calls, this week promises to be one of the most important so far in 2022. Somewhere in all that data we should learn whether the economy is really in a recession (spoiler alert: it … continue reading →
It’s another one of those mornings where ES is taking its cues from a timely VIX smackdown, erasing a modest overnight loss and promising to add to yesterday’s rally. But, today is actually different, with the 10Y gapping lower as stocks creep higher. It could be a delayed reaction to yesterday’s sharp selloff in oil … continue reading →
Gasoline futures (RBOB) have reached our 200-day moving average target set on March 3 [see: The Devil You Know] after having broken out of a falling flag pattern. Then… …nothing would be as effective at punishing Russia and helping to solve the inflation problem as crashing the oil market…If oil does retreat, stocks should too. … continue reading →
This morning feels a whole lot like yesterday morning, with futures ramping higher on the latest smackdown in VIX. Of course, these maneuvers can be an effort to force a breakout in stocks. But, they can also be an effort to put a little more air under stocks in advance of a downturn. With plenty … continue reading →