Maintaining an Even Strain

Looking at the bounce since Jun 16, I can’t help but think of Chuck Yeager’s ill-fated journey into space. Futures are up very slightly this morning, fixated on maintaining prices through tomorrow’s massive option expiration.VIX: an excellent example of maintaining an even strain.continued for members… … continue reading →

Housing Continues to Disappoint

Housing starts missed again this morning, underscoring the NAHB’s assessment that the housing industry is in a recession. Starts came in 100K below consensus and 9.5% below June’s report. Futures, still laser focused on OPEX, didn’t budge. The NAHB posted the 8th monthly decline in a row yesterday, reporting the lowest reading since May 2020.  … continue reading →

Empire Fed: 2nd Biggest Plunge Ever

On the heels of a slowdown in China which was serious enough to cut interest rates, the Empire Fed numbers which came out this morning represent the second largest decline ever.  It was expected to slip from 11.1 to 5.0. Instead, it plunged to -31.3, among the worst readings on record. Aside from the COVID … continue reading →

PPI: Rolling Over?

Annual headline PPI eased slightly in July, rising 9.8% versus June’s 11.1% increase. Monthly headline actually fell 0.5%, due largely to drops in oil prices. Core PPI remained elevated at 5.8% annually and 0.2% monthly. As with CPI, the question remains whether inflation is rolling over or merely pausing. With OPEX approaching, algos can’t be … continue reading →

CPI Edges Lower

Futures ripped higher on the news that July CPI came in 0.2% lower than expected on both the monthly and annual headline figures: 0.0% and 8.5%.  Core rose 0.3% and 5.9% – still well above the Fed’s so-called 2% target. Much has been made of the price drop seen in oil and gas since mid-June. … continue reading →

2019 Redux?

In late 2019, many were mystified by a market that continued to rise even in the face of worsening fundamentals. VIX – the supposed fear gauge – inexplicably plumbed new lows and, eventually, broke down below a channel (in red below) dating back to late 2017…. …even as news of a deadly pandemic became more … continue reading →

Good News is Bad News

We’ve been used to the bad news is good news meme for such a long time, it feels weird to even type that. That’s the reality, however, when investors are already counting the days till the Fed’s easing cycle and we get 528,000 new jobs instead of the 258,000 expected. The tightening might just have … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 3, 2022

The VIX nonsense continues, ramping futures back above the SMA100 with the help of Jim Bullard, Fed president and occasional CNBC host, who insists there is no recession – just like he insisted inflation wouldn’t be a problem. Whether there is or not, the market will never reflect one as long as this kind of … continue reading →