pebblewriter

Tag: economics

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 15, 2024

    Futures are flat this OPEX morning as algos weigh the impact of higher than expected inflation, driven largely by rising oil and gas prices.continued for members… (more…)

  • PPI Comes in Hot, Too

    February PPI came in at twice expectations: 0.6% versus 0.3%.  In a replay of the CPI print, stocks dipped for a few seconds before resuming their overnight ramp as algos were more focused on VIX dropping through its 50-DMA just in time for OPEX.

    VIX did pop above the 50-DMA…for several seconds. It got better.Indicators such as RSI still remain on edge.continued for members… (more…)

  • On the Brink, Again

    The last time VIX cratered to below its 50-day moving average in two days, ES popped over 3%. Then, as now, SPX had committed the egregious sin of dipping below its 10-day moving average as it approached important Fibonacci resistance. The difference, now, is that SPX is on the brink of a breakout above that resistance.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • CPI Hotter Than Expected

    February headline CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.3% expected (and January.) Core CPI registered a 0.4% rise versus .03% forecast and 0.4% prior. YoY, headline was up 3.15%, up from 3.09% in January and a slight beat of the 3.1% expected, while core rose 3.8%, down from 3.9% in January.

    Shelter and gas price increases were responsible for 60% of the rise in February.

    This is in keeping with our Gas v CPI model which shows a slight uptick in MoM pricing in the midst of a YoY decline.

    The short-volatility algos were busy this morning, with VIX diving more than 5% in minutes to back below the 200-DMA.

    Futures, which might have been expected to tumble on the expectation of further delays to FOMC rate cuts, rallied instead. continued for members… (more…)

  • PCE in Line

    January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December.

    In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at a 0.2% rate versus 0.7% in December.

    Algos cheered the data, with futures swinging from a moderate loss to a moderate gain in seconds.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 28, 2024

    Futures are off moderately in the lead up to tomorrow’s important PCE print.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 27, 2024

    Durable goods ex transportation fell by 0.3% in January, slightly more than expected. Futures rose slightly on the print, but are essentially flat ahead of the important consumer confidence reading.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 26, 2024

    Futures are flat ahead of the open as traders place their bets on Thursday’s PCE print.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Stagflation Fears Renewed

    January PPI came in much hotter than expected while housing starts and permits fell far short of consensus, stoking persistent fears of stagflation.  PPI came in at 0.3% MoM versus 0.1% expected.  Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.5% versus 0.1% expected. Stripping out trade services, the tally rose to 0.6%, its highest print since January 2023.

    Monthly gains in the index for final demand for services again outpaced that for goods at +0.6% versus -0.2%. Had energy prices not continued their decline (-1.7%) the print would have been even more alarming.

    Futures had been slightly higher overnight, but fell into the red after the closely followed prints. continued for members… (more…)

  • Retail Sales Warn of Economic Woes

    Retail sales plunged 0.8% in January, far below estimates of -0.2% and last month’s +0.4%. The miss can’t be attributed solely to seasonality, as the Jan 2023 print was a massive +3.7% gain. The annual gain from Jan 2024 was a meager 0.6%.

    It has been a tough week for economic data. Inflation higher than expected and retail sales much lower than expected – sounds like a recipe for stagflation. With the UK officially sliding into recession, can the US be far behind?

    Futures have given up some of their slight overnight gains.

    continued for members… (more…)