pebblewriter

Tag: DXY

  • PPI: Record Highs

    Headline PPI reached record highs in February, coming in at 10.0% YoY. Under the hood, prices for unfinished goods registered 14.6%, the highest since January 2001. Prices for processed goods jumped 23.3%. Prices increased across the board, with the largest gains in energy.

    Futures were flat going into the early morning VIX plunge, but gained steam once VIX dropped back below its 10-day moving average at 32.28. Look for a backtest of the broken white channel at around 4205.continued for members… (more…)

  • Update on USDJPY: Mar 14, 2022

    USDJPY reached our 118 target overnight.

    We charted this target over a year ago [see: USDJPY’s Turn] following USDJPY’s breakout from the falling purple channel [see: The Usual Suspects], reasoning that the Bank of Japan would ramp up the yen carry trade in order to support the Nikkei’s breakout.

    The BoJ rarely disappoints, and they didn’t in this case. The question, now, is how far they’re willing to go.

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  • Time to Crash the Oil Market

    They’ve done it before. And, it’s the only action that could truly punish Russia while helping to solve the inflation problem.

    The charts fully support it, with loads of logical downside targets just begging to be tagged.

    Yes, stocks would suffer too. But, you can’t have everything. And, if it gets underway quickly enough, there’s still plenty of support for equities at the -20% mark or higher.

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  • War…What is it Good For?

    Absolutely nothing?  Well…vol came under pressure again last night despite the recent 10/20 cross and obvious escalation in risk of military action in Ukraine. Apparently the threat of war is good for stocks.

    Nevertheless, the futures heard and obeyed and continue to eye the VIX breakdown threat which works more often than not.continued for members… (more…)

  • Bullard Speaks

    In a CNBC interview this morning, Fed President Jim Bullard said “Our credibility is on the line here…”  Anyone paying any attention to the Fed knows that that ship sailed a long time ago.

    Futures have been all over the map, down as many as 55 points before VIX was hammered following a false news report regarding the situation in Ukraine.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 11, 2022

    This is all it took to get FOMC members to walk back Bullard’s hawkish comments. Note the tiny channel breakdown. Terrifying enough to keep QE going and to respond to the worst inflation in 40 years with a mere 25 bps rate hike a month from now? Apparently.How else can you explain this insanity?

    If it’s too hard to see the Fed Funds rate on the above chart, here’s a close up.continued for members… (more…)

  • CPI Reaches New 40-Yr High

    January headline CPI reached 7.5%, a new 40-yr high, sending the 10Y up over 2% for the first time since August 2019 when CPI registered 1.75%. As has been the trend since November, oil/gas no longer leads the way.

    Inflation has become widespread, higher than the Fed’s so-called 2% target in every category except, ironically, medical services. Energy was the only category showing a negative MoM change.

    Futures are off over 40 points so far. If not for the ramp job of the last few days, ES would be back below its 200-DMA. It’s the markets version of raising prices so you can advertise a huge sale.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 7, 2022

    Futures are up slightly as we approach the open – an extension of the bounce off recent lows.

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  • Facebook Flops

    Futures are off sharply overnight on Facebook’s sensational plunge.

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  • Put Up or Shut Up

    SPX has been threatening to break back above its 200-day moving average ever since Jan 23. Despite numerous vigorous attempts, it remains below it, signalling more downside ahead.

    It’s time for the bears to put up or shut up.

    continued for members… (more…)