pebblewriter

Tag: DJIA

  • What Inflation?

    The Case-Shiller Home Price index rose 12% YoY – the fastest pace since February 2006 – meaning even fewer Americans have a shot at purchasing or renting a house. Ironically, the burden falls mostly on the low-income families that the Fed claims to be most concerned about. Thank goodness we don’t have an inflation problem.

    In unrelated news (not), futures notched a new all-time high overnight and have essentially busted the little H&S Pattern that might have resulted in a massive (sarc) 1.8% selloff.

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  • Update on Oil & Gas: Apr 26, 2021

    March durable goods orders disappointed this morning, coming in at 0.5% versus the 2.3% rebound expected after February’s -1.2% flop.

    We couldn’t help wonder whether the data were somehow related to the first (tiny) breakdown in RBOB prices since the Mar 23 lows.

    Given that oil and gas are poised to deliver a huge increase in CPI for April, this might be a good time to review where we are and where we’re headed.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 21, 2021

    Futures are backtesting the 10-day SMA this morning in the wake of the first two day decline since March.

    Look for more to come.

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  • Moment of Truth: 2021 Edition

    With various indices reaching or nearing important overhead resistance, today is shaping up as a moment of truth for a market which has delighted in head fakes.continued for members… (more…)

  • Last Call

    Despite a few tense moments midday, ES held the TL of support from last Wednesday and has rebounded to within 7.50 points of the important Fibonacci extension and channel top at 4153.62.Will the substantial overhead resistance at these levels matter this time? We’ll know very, very soon.

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  • Election Aftermath

    Futures were all over the map last night, with ES’ 113-pt range dictated almost entirely by factors as opposed to election results – which, contrary to Trump’s declaration, are still AWOL. Note that ES tagged our IH&S neckline (also the former H&S neckline) target where it is currently running out of gas.

    As expected, the most important factor was VIX which collapsed over 18% from its overnight highs – slicing through channel midline and the 10, 200 and 20-day moving averages.

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  • A Cure?

    Despite the number of US coronavirus cases nearing 8 million and deaths approaching 220,000, the algos continue to focus on their daily dose of collapsing VIX.

    It’s enough to make one wonder whether central bankers have found a cure for a market correction.

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  • The Road Ahead

    Futures ramped higher overnight, continuing to dance to the tune of VIX’s smackdown and ongoing rumors of a fiscal stimulus deal…

    …and ignoring troubling pandemic facts.

    But, we’re finally into October and Q4. And, as we discussed yesterday, things are about to get very interesting.

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  • Because They Can

    A new week, a new breakout in the after-hours for no particular reason.

    And, just when the ramp job started to waver, a 5.6% smackdown on VIX – no news, just a reminder not to focus on the pandemic, the millions out of work, our dysfunctional Congress, the coming election battle, Trump’s tax troubles, etc.

    Why? Because they can.

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  • The Pandemic is Still With Us

    ES is now off 9.3% from its recent top (-7.8% from our Correction Warning), nailing our 3253 target overnight.  The decline has broadened from the overpriced tech stocks to include banks, energy and cyclicals.

    The factors we’ve been watching for the past three weeks are all bearish now, and bulls are starting to acknowledge the fundamental risks inherent in the economic and political landscape – not to mention an obvious uptick in coronavirus cases in many significant countries around the world. Contrary to politicians’ cheerleading and assurances of a successful vaccine just around the corner, the pandemic is still very much with us.

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